The Peso continues to decline this month. Since the 10% crash from January to February, the long term trend is in a downwards channel. However I believe that it will once again break below the channel and continue to fall. (Click and drag on the price axis to move the chart).
Looking at more short term profits:
A Head and Shoulders pattern is forming on the daily chat. This is normally a reversal pattern and not a continuation, however I believe that a 50% retracement of the "head" will still act as resistance, as it has in previous red daily candles. See the black horizontal minor resistance level from the past month as this also lines up.
Normally the target of this H&S would be a 1:1 extension of the head to the neckline, however because it will be breaking this important channel, there is no resistance there to hold it so expect a drop fast. Possible resistance level is the black line on the chart.
The RSI is not near the oversold level, so still has further to fall.
Downsides:
-There have not been any noticeable H&S formations on this pairing in the past.
-H&S normally signifies a reversal rather than continuation.
-The resistance in the channel may be enough to push it back up as this "H&S" is not yet so big. If this fails then look for a short opportunity after a larger structure.
Good luck trading.
Looking at more short term profits:
A Head and Shoulders pattern is forming on the daily chat. This is normally a reversal pattern and not a continuation, however I believe that a 50% retracement of the "head" will still act as resistance, as it has in previous red daily candles. See the black horizontal minor resistance level from the past month as this also lines up.
Normally the target of this H&S would be a 1:1 extension of the head to the neckline, however because it will be breaking this important channel, there is no resistance there to hold it so expect a drop fast. Possible resistance level is the black line on the chart.
The RSI is not near the oversold level, so still has further to fall.
Downsides:
-There have not been any noticeable H&S formations on this pairing in the past.
-H&S normally signifies a reversal rather than continuation.
-The resistance in the channel may be enough to push it back up as this "H&S" is not yet so big. If this fails then look for a short opportunity after a larger structure.
Good luck trading.
Catatan
The neckline bounced as expected. We are now forming the right shoulder. I recommend to zoom out to see the reasoning for some support levels below the major channel.Catatan
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that volume is decreasing on this right shoulder, showing that an upwards breakout is unlikely and strengthening our position. Decreasing volume on the shoulders is a common feature of this pattern. We are past the first visible resistance at the red fib level. Volume reduced slightly after this, and I expect this to continue until the top where sells will overwhelm buys as the black resistance line combined with the feb level will be too strong.
We can also see that the Boll Bands are acting as serious resistance and have not yet narrowed. They will likely narrow when the right shoulder formation is finished and reaches the neckline, which is a sell signal. So this will trigger a sell off and probably dump below resistance.
Trade aktif
Congratulations if you opened a short position as the neckline was crossed. I think due to fundamental factors we still have a long way to go down, although maybe not as sudden a crash as I was thinking original. Still, the technical indicators point to a potential breakdown to 0.018 or lower.Catatan
Small inverse H&S forming. May close this idea as I don't forsee it crashing so soon nowOrder dibatalkan
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Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.