PACS - Dec 24 100SMA StrongWeak Bounce

17 Des 2024

• Sector: Nursing facilities
  
• Revenue and EPS has stalled, not clear consistency.
  
• Short Interest: 1.98%
  
• ADR 5.17%
  
• Does it respect the H1 100SMA (Min 3Months): Yes
  
• Both founders have around 45M units of stock left after selling in Sep (8M units), Apr (1.6M units)
  
• 4 Nov, Hindenburg has done a short report leading to a gap down and decline of almost 60%. hindenburgresearch.com/pacs/
• 26 Nov PACS Group receives NYSE non-compliance notice
  
• Is it a Hype Thematic (AI, Solar): Potential US healthcare
  

• 100SMA StrongWeak Bounce 🏀 (0.5R) v1.0
• Trading risk at 0.5R as we are testing this strategy
  
• This trade model is based on us riding the 100SMA trend waves of the strongest and weakest companies. It only executes well when greater force (RUT & SPX) is trending. Entries are at greater force key levels when it is consolidating. When greater force is taking off it is too late.
  
• Entry
  
• Within Stdev 100 zone
  
• SL = ATR14 * 2 (Run full course no early exits)
  
• Trailing stop (Previous Day Low or high)
  
• Price launch off (D1)
  
• D2 Closes
  
• D3 Move SL to D2 Low
  

17 Des 2024

Catatan

Scaling up 1.1R since price has made a new low

19 Des 2024

Catatan

Scaled again because while the other stocks we tracked were becoming bullish, PACS was the opposite and continued bearish. With our adjusted SL this was a USD100 bet vs a potential >2R return, it was good EV to let run into the Fed announcement and the bet paid off.

20 Des 2024

Trading ditutup: stop tercapai

Exit
Price hit previous day high