11/7/24 - $olpx - EPS not great, waiting room mid $1's

7 Nov

11/7/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: OLPX
EPS not great, waiting room mid $1's

- whenever the CEO opens up a quarterly report with words like "This year has been dedicated to the transformation"... say no more.
- I think Amanda has a good product (I use it actually!) and is the right person for the task at hand, but this turnaround won't be easy and probably more of a '25 event before we really see it producing fruit
- if we imagine FCF could be probably more like 125 mm (i can't give credit for 150 mm next year) and a 15% discount rate (what i think the market will return! so it should be more, but i'm already erring on more conservative FCF guess), that's simplistically 125/.15 = ~$850. i could get to 1 bn if you want to put some growth in etc, etc, but i have my reasons (if you want me to expound i'll write you a valuation tome in the comments - and making that offer - i will). anyway stock is still 1.3 bn valuation EV (small net debt of ~150 mm).
- the names that have any debt and aren't ripping the ball off the cover aren't doing well as yields spike.
- while OLPX defn makes $$ (thank goodness), the risk reward for a stock now off it's highs and losing some momentum on this print i think... means lower.
- where do i start fishing? minimally $1.60's, but given we're entering a funky season of the year and i'd like to keep the book in high conviction beat/raise types with good '25 visibility (hello nxt! hello BTC hello TSM and META)... it's tough for me to get involved right now.
- lmk if you see it differently.
- i'd like to own it again, but now i need a better reason... mainly lower price.

V