NZDUSD - Double Top - Bearish Divergence leading into Cypher ?

4 Okt 2015

Price is trying to fight a resistance level but seems to have less and less buyers involved, reason why we see the BBP divergence. RSI diverges in the same way so a downward move is more likely than a move to the upside.

I would enter this opportunity @ market with

SL > 0.6470
TP 1 = 0.6370 (0.382 retracement of last move up)
TP 2 = 0.6320 (0.618 retracement)
TP 3 = 0.6280 (0.786 retracement and Bullish Cypher completion)

Once 0.382 target is reached (and neck line of double top is broken) we might see a 2618 pattern emerge ... where price retraces to the 0.618 of the move down. This offers another opportunity to go short.

The Reward/Risk ratio for this trade is quite favorable with a 2/1 ratio for the first target.

5 Okt 2015

Catatan

When I saw that the price gapped to the upside, I increased my stop to 2 ATR above the previous high, meaning my stop is @ 0.6485. Position size was also adapted to the new pip amount, what makes that the potential loss remains the same. We will see if price will reverse before that or not.

If not, ... you can't win them all :)

5 Okt 2015

Trading ditutup: stop tercapai

Price action decided otherwise ... So looking for the next opportunity :)