Possible ignition candle in the NZD/USD daily chart

The NZD/USD pair has experienced a decline of over 12% in recent weeks, showing no significant pullbacks on the daily chart. Currently, the price has reached an important support zone on the daily timeframe (D1), marked as a crucial decision point for the market. This notable depreciation of the New Zealand dollar is primarily due to the substantial rise of the US dollar, which gained momentum following Donald Trump's election. His commitments to bolster the US economy have fueled optimism in the American market, putting pressure on other currencies.

Potential Buying Opportunity

The current candle suggests characteristics that could indicate the start of a buying movement. If the daily close exceeds the 0.5664 level (indicated by the black line), it may form a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart, signaling a strong reversal after the recent steep decline.

If this pattern is validated, the price might target the 0.5860 area initially, representing a potential movement of around 196 pips. This level coincides with the 38.6% Fibonacci retracement, which may act as temporary resistance.

A prudent risk management strategy could involve placing a stop loss just below the recent low on the daily chart, around 0.5564 (approximately 100 pips), to safeguard against potential false reversals.

Alternative Scenario

Should the price fail to maintain its recovery and drop below the recent low (0.5585), the pair could continue its downward trend, potentially testing new lower support levels, including 0.5500 and 0.5400. This would suggest the continuation of the prevailing downtrend.

Macroeconomic Considerations

Investors should keep a close eye on this week's macroeconomic reports, such as the NonFarm Payroll (NFP) and the US unemployment rate, which could introduce greater volatility into the market and directly impact the NZD/USD pair's performance. These events may be pivotal in confirming or refuting the outlined scenarios. By tracking both technical and fundamental developments, strategies can be adjusted with greater precision throughout the week.

Disclaimer

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