Adding bullish exposure in NZDUSD
Diupdate
As the cross approached the interesting support level we widely mentioned here it was clearing time for shorts.
The RBNZ is expecting the housing market to receive a small boost from the recent drop in mortgage rates and the OCR cut. I think the boost will be larger and in my models house price inflation will accelerate to 6% by 2020. The view is not only based on falling mortgage rates - capital gains tax has vanished and is another reason to expect an upturn. The RBNZ sounded undecided on the prospect of a follow up cut, this is something I do not expect to happen. They have braced for very weak domestic economic data and it seems unlikely that we will get a surprise on the downside.
Dairy prices continue to edge a touch higher, the bouts of pessimism on global growth is having little impact on New Zealands commodity export prices.
Putting it all together, whilst the risk to another cut this year is there, it is not my view and a strengthening local and global economy will mean it's as low as the RBNZ go.
The RBNZ is expecting the housing market to receive a small boost from the recent drop in mortgage rates and the OCR cut. I think the boost will be larger and in my models house price inflation will accelerate to 6% by 2020. The view is not only based on falling mortgage rates - capital gains tax has vanished and is another reason to expect an upturn. The RBNZ sounded undecided on the prospect of a follow up cut, this is something I do not expect to happen. They have braced for very weak domestic economic data and it seems unlikely that we will get a surprise on the downside.
Dairy prices continue to edge a touch higher, the bouts of pessimism on global growth is having little impact on New Zealands commodity export prices.
Putting it all together, whilst the risk to another cut this year is there, it is not my view and a strengthening local and global economy will mean it's as low as the RBNZ go.
Catatan
Well done those riding this one... a live textbook example of a base formation.
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