Potential short on NZDUSD?

9 Apr 2021

All I can see is shorts in this scenario. But I am having difficulties understanding why it keeps pushing up.

Ideas to support this idea:

• Strong trendline resistance
  
• Key Level resistance
  
• Strong resistance zone
  
• ICI to the downside
  
• DXY strong support at 92, which has already been tested
  
• DXY looks heavily oversold on LTFs
  
• NZDUSD looks heaving overbought on LTFs
  
• My Stoch indicator is giving multiple signals to short on multiple LTFs
  

Although I still think that we see a huge impulse down any minute, I am losing confidence as time goes by.
If I see price action on DXY continuing down, I'll likely close this trade around 25 pips, instead of holding to 40 pips.
Let me know your thoughts.

Trade Safe!
HEET

9 Apr 2021

Catatan

Thank God! We finally had an impulse down.
Now just need to break the support zone marked in red and we should see continuation at least to the recent lows.

9 Apr 2021

Catatan

I was kinda expecting this but hoping it wouldn't happen.
I am guessing it will retest the entry before it comes back down, if it comes back down.

Why? To complete the H&S pattern and reject the upside move in order to push back down.



One thing I am a little worried about. What if this is a break and retest of the counter trendline breakout? Depending on whether you draw your trendline with wicks or optimal placement, it resisted the trendline or broke out...

If the current retracement breaks the top, I think it is safe to say this idea is invalidated.

9 Apr 2021

Catatan

This trade is looking much better now. We cleared the previous higher lows and hoping that we can reach the previous lows around 0.7015 for the first target.

9 Apr 2021

Catatan

I took some profits close to the bottom and on the retracement closed 50% of my position. DXY is still bullish but NZD is gaining a lot of strength.

I'll likely close the rest of my position shortly and consider reentry if the price action goes in my direction.

9 Apr 2021

Catatan

I'm still in the trade with my stop loss at break-even with only 1 lot remaining. I'll let it ride just to see if it plays out or not.

Also, it looks like we have a strong level of resistance that may save this trade idea.

9 Apr 2021

Catatan

After crossing that resistance level I marked above, I closed the rest of my position. I'll step away from the charts until NY session.

9 Apr 2021

Catatan

Just in case, I set an alert on that trendline. I may consider a reentry depending on price action and if it holds.