Learn to appreciate fibonacci extension (Example)

30 Nov 2019

A solid currency trading strategy consists of entering a trade at the right place, having a stop that is properly calculated, and setting a reasonable profit target level that works time after time after time.

Many newer traders set too ambitious profit targets expecting the trade to be "the big one" and hoping it will help offset the losses they have accumulated.

However, a far more effective currency trading strategy is to set a reasonable profit target each time, not expecting the home run, and being satisfied with smaller profits which on a consistent basis will build the equity in the account surprisingly quickly once the compounding action kicks in.

Here is where the Fibonacci tool comes in.

This article assumes a trader knows how to use the Fibonacci tool which comes as a standard technical analysis tool on most charting software packages.

While the key retracement levels are 38, 50, 62 and 70 percent, two extension levels are commonly used - 1.27 and 1.62 percent.

30 Nov 2019

Catatan

The Importance Of Fib 127

It is the 1.27 level we are interested in.

Why?

Because price regularly gets to the 1.27 level, or at least within a few pips of it. Price also gets to the 1.62 level fairly often but not nearly as often as the 1.27 level.

So if you are trading with the trend, always a safe currency trading strategy, and price has pulled back to the 50 or 62 retracement levels, there is a very reasonable chance price will reach the 1.27 target.

If price pulls back to the 79 retracement level it may not go so far. If you trade from that retracement, you will want to take the first profit at the end of the swing as price may not extend beyond that point to the 1.27 or 1.62 level.

Some traders just focus on this currency trading strategy when going with the trend:
In at the Fib 50 retracement
Out at the Fib 127 extension

30 Nov 2019

Catatan

Why is this such a sound currency trading strategy?

Because the Fib 38 retracement level does not offer such a good risk reward ratio many times. There is always the risk price will pull back further and take out your stop.

On the other hand, price frequently fails to reach the 62 or 79 retracement levels so the trader is left on the sidelines as the trade fails to get filled.

The 50 level is frequently reached so the trader has a good chance of getting his order filled.

On the other hand, the 127 extension is not too ambitious. In at 50 and out at 127 will often net a profit of somewhere between 25 and 40 pips. With a 20 to 25 pip stop the risk reward ratio is satisfactory.

30 Nov 2019

Catatan

How To Use Fib 127

Here are some other factors to consider when using the Fib 127 extension:

Look to see if this level coincides with other factors such as

A previous key level of support or resistance on the higher time frames such as 1 hour, 4 hour, daily, or even weekly.

The 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) on the 1 hour or 4 hour. This often provides quite a strong level of support and resistance.

A pivot point (Central Pivot Point, R1, R2, S1, S2, or M1-4 levels ) calculated from the previous day's High, Low and Close.

Even when targeting the Fib 127 as the profit taking point, it is wise to trim a couple of pips of the limit order. So often price will nearly reach Fib 127 and pull back.

Yes it might go on to touch it later but in the meantime price retraces and you have to have the mental stamina to be able to handle that.

Many traders would rather just take a slightly smaller profit and save themselves one or two hours of price consolidation with the risk they may lose the profit altogether.

A solid currency trading strategy develops over time. A key ingredient is not being too ambitious. The Fib 127 extension level is a reasonable profit target you can use regularly to extract your wages from the Forex market!