NZD/USD at a Huge Decision Point

2 Jul 2020

NZDUSD has been in a downtrend since late 2014 and has been sliding down since then.
It has been forming a descending triangle which it had broken with the recent black swan event we have seen across the markets. Since then, it had reclaimed the descending triangle and trading back into it.
It is at a big decision time. If it breaks above, NZD can rally significantly, if it breaks down i think the triangle will act as resistance. We are also pretty close to the apex of it.

Usually descending triangles are bearish formations and 70% of them end up breaking down. However, the fact that it had already broken down and reclaimed back into the triangle makes me vary about the formation itself.
Furthermore, the fact that triangle was broken due to the virus, it might go in any direction it is hard to tell.

What is clear is the fact that NZD has been making lower highs continously on a weekly scale which is hard to ignore. I am leaning bearish and a break down to make a new low but I will stay in sidelines.

I would only trade the confirmation of a break out in either direction. I wouldn't jump the gun and try to pick a side right now. Especially with what's going around the world. Assuming it would break down, my target to close to short and turn bullish is the green line.