Kiwi Remains Under Pressure and Vulnerable to the Downside

7 Sep 2015

A look at the bigger picture shows the Kiwi under pressure and vulnerable to further downside moves. This analysis is on a monthly chart and therefore does not address excursions on the shorter times. The kiwi is oversold on every time frame from the monthly to the 4 hr charts and would suggest we are due for a pullback however pullbacks so far have been shallow at best. I haven't seen the Kiwi this oversold since tomorrow! Trends can go for a lot further and longer than what we think. So while the Kiwi is oversold and due for a pullback it could very well be another shallow one and provide opportunity to sell. The next level of support appears to be 0.5800ish.
We have a confluence of support at this level; we have a 61.8% (0.5793) fib retracement drawn from the 2000 low at 0.3909 to the highs at 0.8841. We also have a 76.4 4% (0.5822) fib retracement drawn from the post financial crisis in March of 2009 at 0.4890 to the highs at 0.8841. And if we look at the last move up ( 0.7686 to 0.8841) before developing its current downtrend we can easily see we have already broken the 1.272% and the 1.618% levels and are currently eyeing the 2.618% level at 0.5798.
We are also approaching a 15 year rising trend line at about these same levels. Lastly we have confirmed a double top (0.8841) following a break of its neckline at 0.7370 bringing a measure move to 0.5899.
Sell into rallies!