NVDA oversold - I triple dog dare you to bet against AI

3 Sep

Full disclosure, I'm not taking this trade. Don't get me wrong, I LOVE it. NVDA has a great reecent track record when short-term oversold as the arrows indicate. I just have my max # of positions and I won't overextend even for NVDA.

I don't imagine this pullback is done. But there has been no such thing as as a bad time to buy NVDA in the last several years, looking back now. I suspect strongly that not long after the Fed announcement, this will be overbought and profitable.

This is one that if I were to buy it, I wouldn't have a minute of worry, much less lose sleep if I had to hold it for a long time to wait for it to become profitable. We are in the VERY early innings of an AI revolution. I believe this technology is as transformational as the silicon chip or the internet were, and NVDA would be as close to a core holding in that regard as there is.

I have no skin in this game currently, and this is simply one man's musings on a good time to enter for a short term trade. I may need a reminder to keep this on my radar since I'm not actively trading it, so feel free to comment to ask for updates if you're interested.

This is for the purposes of financial edutainment. This isn't investment advice and you should always do your own due diligence before entering a trade.

4 Sep

Catatan

Still oversold. I'd have added 1 lot today at the close at 106.21. Yesterday's lot would have been at 108.00 (shown by the yellow line).

6 Sep

Trade aktif

Oversold again so I added 1 lot after hours at 101.98

6 Sep

Catatan

Just FYI - the previous comment is a hypothetical add. A reminder - I'm not actually trading this one because I already have the max number of positions open in other tickers. It was after hours because my afternoon got busy and I missed the regular close.

9 Sep

Catatan

OK you're gonna have to scroll down to the comments section to see the results of the backtest I ran on NVDA with my trading system. I said I would post it here, but I screwed up on the location, and it won't let me copy and paste it to here. Sorry!

11 Sep

Catatan

Another reason I can't bet against NVDA:

Oracle Unveils Cloud Computing Cluster with Up to 131,072 NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs

hpcwire.com/off-the-wire/oracle-unveils-cloud-computing-cluster-with-up-to-131072-nvidia-blackwell-gpus/

Credit to sunnyments for posting this as a mind post

11 Sep

Trading ditutup: target tercapai

Based on the rules of my system, I would have closed all lots at the close today at 116.73 because it is now oversold and all are profitable.

The stats:
Original lot (108.00) = +8.1% in 6 trading days
Lot 2 = +9.9% in 5 trading days
Lot 3 = +14.5% in 3 trading days

Since it would be a fully closed trade, I likely won't be updating unless I notice that it's oversold again or someone asks for my opinion or engages me in some other conversation here. To all those who would say I'm a hypocrite for getting out here, my response would simply be that I can put that money to work into something else while I wait for this to be oversold again. Plus I own a lot of it in core ETF holdings. Have a great day everyone!

11 Sep

Catatan

Update: trading system record is now 714-1 on NVDA all-time. That one lot is the lot that would have been opened at 117.59 (pre-dates my posting date of this idea) and the average gain is up to 7.04%

13 Sep

Catatan

Last lot (from before this idea) would have been closed today for a +1.3% gain in 10 trading days. Officially 715-0 on NVDA with that close.

17 Sep

Catatan

Trades Summary (for my accounting)

Wins 3 Losses 0

+8.1% in 6 days
+9.9% in 5 days
+14.5% in 3 days

Average gain = +10.8%
Average hold period = 4.7 days
Per lot per day held annualized gain = +579%