NAS/QQQ Weekend Look (Feb28-Mar4)
Here is the weekend look at the NAS/QQQ going into Feb 28-Mar 4th. Volatility continued last week with a wild 8% turn around on Thursday after a 7% drop to start the week on Tuesday and Wednesday. The invasion of Ukraine on Wednesday Night caused a massive panic sell off down to 13025. The market opened deep in the red on Thursday morning and then rallied almost immediately out of the green zone identified in last weeks chart. I identified the zone using the 1.618 fib inversion measurement and the long term trendline support. Those who have faith in my levels should have been able to capitalize or at the very least avoid selling into support. Last week was a strong example of why I focus on price and key levels and ignore the media.
This week is setting up to be another one for the history books. With the strong rally last week price has reclaimed the neckline of the H&S and closed above the 9 ema. This was positive and many gururs are saying the bottom is in . Although the late week rally was spectacular keep in mind that price is still below the 382 retracement fib (below neutral), is below the 21ema and the downward trendline has not been broken. For these reasons I remain bearish and would not be surprised to see a test of the recent low of 13025. That said there is a lot of money short this market right now and any positive news could lead to an explosive upside move. If price can work it's way above the 21ema into the red box a move back up to the top of the box and the 200 sma is possible. I personally will not flip longer term bullish again until price gets above 15000.
Obviously the Russian/Ukraine war is top of mind, but next week the narrative may turn back to inflation with Powell's testimony on Wed & Thurs and a slew of inflation data. The much anticipated rate decision in March will also come into play. There is no way to predict the outcome of all these events so all we can do is watch key levels to see how the market reacts and trade the results.
Weekly Events...
Monday.. Earnings from ZM, LCID, HPQ, ACAD, DDD
Tuesday... ISM Manufacturing PMI... Earnings from BIDU, BNS, CRON, DPZ, SE, TGT, FSLR, GRWG, NIO, PLBY, PLUG, WISH, CRM
Wednesday... Powell Testifies & Crude Inventories... Earnings from DLTR, AEO, PLAN, CHPT, OKTA, SNOW, VEEV, PSTG
Thursday... Jobless Claims, Us Factory Orders, ISM Non-Manufacturing & Powell Testimony Earnings from BBY, BILI, BJ, CNQ, KR, TD, AVGO, COST, ESTC
Friday... Non Farm Payrolls, US Unemployment & Average Earnings
Bullish Notes...
H&S neckline held
Historically high short interest (possible short covering rally)
Potential Russia/Ukraine truce
Dovish comment from Fed Head & Powell
Buy the Dip momentum surge
Bearish Notes...
Potential re-test of recent lows
Russia/Ukraine war worsens
Hawkish comments for Fed Heads & Powell
Data shows increasing inflation
Overhead resistance remains strong
Headline risk is abnormally high
This week is setting up to be another one for the history books. With the strong rally last week price has reclaimed the neckline of the H&S and closed above the 9 ema. This was positive and many gururs are saying the bottom is in . Although the late week rally was spectacular keep in mind that price is still below the 382 retracement fib (below neutral), is below the 21ema and the downward trendline has not been broken. For these reasons I remain bearish and would not be surprised to see a test of the recent low of 13025. That said there is a lot of money short this market right now and any positive news could lead to an explosive upside move. If price can work it's way above the 21ema into the red box a move back up to the top of the box and the 200 sma is possible. I personally will not flip longer term bullish again until price gets above 15000.
Obviously the Russian/Ukraine war is top of mind, but next week the narrative may turn back to inflation with Powell's testimony on Wed & Thurs and a slew of inflation data. The much anticipated rate decision in March will also come into play. There is no way to predict the outcome of all these events so all we can do is watch key levels to see how the market reacts and trade the results.
Weekly Events...
Monday.. Earnings from ZM, LCID, HPQ, ACAD, DDD
Tuesday... ISM Manufacturing PMI... Earnings from BIDU, BNS, CRON, DPZ, SE, TGT, FSLR, GRWG, NIO, PLBY, PLUG, WISH, CRM
Wednesday... Powell Testifies & Crude Inventories... Earnings from DLTR, AEO, PLAN, CHPT, OKTA, SNOW, VEEV, PSTG
Thursday... Jobless Claims, Us Factory Orders, ISM Non-Manufacturing & Powell Testimony Earnings from BBY, BILI, BJ, CNQ, KR, TD, AVGO, COST, ESTC
Friday... Non Farm Payrolls, US Unemployment & Average Earnings
Bullish Notes...
H&S neckline held
Historically high short interest (possible short covering rally)
Potential Russia/Ukraine truce
Dovish comment from Fed Head & Powell
Buy the Dip momentum surge
Bearish Notes...
Potential re-test of recent lows
Russia/Ukraine war worsens
Hawkish comments for Fed Heads & Powell
Data shows increasing inflation
Overhead resistance remains strong
Headline risk is abnormally high
Komentar:
After an initial gap down price has recovered and is now pushing into the bottom of the neutral and the 21 ema. Watch for heavy resistance in this area. Above the 21 ema story changes and push to the 200 sma would be possible.
Komentar:
Look from the daily with downward trendline.
Komentar:
Price respected the bottom of the neutral and the 21 ema. Can't push higher until it breaks above the 21 ema and the downward trendline. Re test of recent low still possible.
