NAS/QQQ Weekend Look (Feb 14-18)
Here is the weekend look at the NQ/QQQ going into the trading week of Feb 14-18. The NAS started the week below the red neutral and then made a bullish push prior to the CPI announcement right into the 200 sma. The data came in higher than expected and after an initial positive move price broke down falling 5% from the weekly high. Fears of war with Russia compounded the move on Friday.
Current price action has been confirming my bearish bias. Price is below the neutral, 9/21 ema cloud and the 200 sma. Levels of resistance have been rejected and levels of support have not. One example being the almost exact rejection off the 200sma. This tells me traders & investor were looking for a place to sell and likely had orders placed well in advance. Conversely the 14367 level was taken out effortlessly on Friday. That said things could have been worse given the news cycle. The bond market is now pricing in as many as 7 rate hikes this year. Many believe one hike will be as much as 50 basis points and the 10 yield yield has breached the 2% level. PS there may be a war. Given this bearish narrative the bulls are lucky that the 13706 level is still intact.
Going forward last week's levels remain. Obviously 13706 is a key level to the down side and the 200 sma will be key level above. We have what I call a Gemini setup right now. The market has dueling harmonics and could easily complete a compound correction in either direction. With a break above the 15260 pivot to the upside 16000 would be in play. If the market breaks down below the 13706 pivot the 13000 would be in play.
Weekly Events...
Monday... Fed heads speak... Earnings from... CAR, ANET
Tuesday... US PPI.. Earnings from ABNB, DVN, RBLX, SEDG, UPST, VIAC, AKAM
Wednesday... US Retail Sales, Industrial Production, FOMC Minutes & Crude Inventories.. Earnings from CROX, SHOP, TTD, AMAT, CSCO, DASH, FSLY, NVDA, GBLE
Thursday... Jobless Claims, Earnings from BIDU, PLTR, WMT, YETI, RDFN, ROKU, SHAK, QDEL
Friday...Existing Home Sales Earnings from DE
Bullish Notes...
Strong earnings results causes short covering
10 year yield drops back below 2%
Russia/Ukraine tensions ease.
Bearish Notes...
Price below 200 sma, 9/21 emas & below red neutral
Weak earnings from key growth stocks
10 year yield moves above 2.3%
Ukraine/Russian tension
Inflation worries
Market mentality is now sell the rip not buy the dip.
Current price action has been confirming my bearish bias. Price is below the neutral, 9/21 ema cloud and the 200 sma. Levels of resistance have been rejected and levels of support have not. One example being the almost exact rejection off the 200sma. This tells me traders & investor were looking for a place to sell and likely had orders placed well in advance. Conversely the 14367 level was taken out effortlessly on Friday. That said things could have been worse given the news cycle. The bond market is now pricing in as many as 7 rate hikes this year. Many believe one hike will be as much as 50 basis points and the 10 yield yield has breached the 2% level. PS there may be a war. Given this bearish narrative the bulls are lucky that the 13706 level is still intact.
Going forward last week's levels remain. Obviously 13706 is a key level to the down side and the 200 sma will be key level above. We have what I call a Gemini setup right now. The market has dueling harmonics and could easily complete a compound correction in either direction. With a break above the 15260 pivot to the upside 16000 would be in play. If the market breaks down below the 13706 pivot the 13000 would be in play.
Weekly Events...
Monday... Fed heads speak... Earnings from... CAR, ANET
Tuesday... US PPI.. Earnings from ABNB, DVN, RBLX, SEDG, UPST, VIAC, AKAM
Wednesday... US Retail Sales, Industrial Production, FOMC Minutes & Crude Inventories.. Earnings from CROX, SHOP, TTD, AMAT, CSCO, DASH, FSLY, NVDA, GBLE
Thursday... Jobless Claims, Earnings from BIDU, PLTR, WMT, YETI, RDFN, ROKU, SHAK, QDEL
Friday...Existing Home Sales Earnings from DE
Bullish Notes...
Strong earnings results causes short covering
10 year yield drops back below 2%
Russia/Ukraine tensions ease.
Bearish Notes...
Price below 200 sma, 9/21 emas & below red neutral
Weak earnings from key growth stocks
10 year yield moves above 2.3%
Ukraine/Russian tension
Inflation worries
Market mentality is now sell the rip not buy the dip.
Komentar:
Here is what I mean by a Gemini setup. Compound moves possible in either direction from here.
Komentar:
4 days of trading and just another round trip so far. Market in chop zone until key pivots above an below taken out.
