Multi-Year Breakout: Monthly Timeframe: Month ending Jul-24

9 Okt 2024

Multi-Year Breakout: Monthly Timeframe: Month ending Jul-24

Price, Volume, RSI, Timeframe of breakout & Timeframe of analysis

• Stock broke its all-time high (277.95) it made in Jan-08 and closed above in the month of Jul-24
  
• Volumes in the month of Jul-24 were above the 9 SMA
  
• RSI in the month of Jul-24 (80.93) is above 60.
  
• A multi-year (19 years) breakout on a monthly time frame
  
• The stock has been consolidating at the breakout levels for the last 3 months and as of today 08-Oct-24 is trading marginally below breakout levels.
  

Numbers

• Breakout analysis High (Jan-08) = 277.95/-
  
• Drawdown (marked on chart) = 243.00/-
  
• SuperTrend (Sep-24) = 149.89 is positive
  
• ATR (Sep-24) = 37.41
  
• Low made in the last analysis time frame (30-Sep-24) = 5241.7
  

Entry / Exit

• Entry = TBD
  
• Target = Breakout level + Drawdown during consolidation phase = 277.95 + 243 ~ 520
  
• Stop Loss = 1 ATR below previous week's (TBD) low = TBD
  
• Risk:Reward = TBD
  
• Exit criteria = Reaches Target || Supertrend turns negative || Price goes below 18 EMA
  
  • Will enter on a green monthly candle, if it closes comfortably above the breakout level (277.95/-).
    
  • Will also enter if price goes in the range of 312 - 318.
    
  • 312 is the high made in the month of Jul-24.
    
  • 318 was computed using ATR to identify a price level, which if reached, gives the stock a good chance that it shall also close above a certain level. Since 4 weeks of a total of 5 weeks remain in the month of Oct, on the day of the analysis (08-Oct), I take 4/5th of the ATR at the previous candle (Sep-24) and add it to the level above which I would like the monthly candle to close.
    
  • ATR (Sep-24) = 37.41
    
  • Level above which I would like the stock to close = Close of Jul-24, the last green candle = 287.85
    
  • 4/5th of previous month's ATR + close of Sep-24 ~ 318
    

12 Okt 2024

Catatan

Week of 14-Oct'24

• Entry = TBD (~325)
  
• Stop Loss = 1 ATR below previous analysis candle's (TBD) low = 258.5 - 37.41 ~ 219 (Reducing to a multiple of 10 and then avoiding whole numbers)
  
• Risk:Reward = TBD
  
• Exit criteria = Reaches Target || Supertrend turns negative || Price goes below 18 EMA
  
  • Will enter on a green monthly candle, if it closes above last closing high (287.85/-). Ignoring the wick since the wick is nearly 50% of the size of the body.
    
  • Will also enter if price goes above Jul'24 close + ATR = 287.85 + 37.41 ~ 325