NIO long pivot for the record $NIO

31 Jan 2024

WXYXZ. Z = Y @ log .618

they wanted a longer description so.. long pivot on deck, bullish divergences multiple timeframes. I like to have fibs AND geometry supporting the count as shown on the chart but it lacks geometry. the 5-3-5 zz we want to see in wave Z is a harder sell but im running with this anyway. Weekly timeframe looks obvious but we can nit pick on tiny timeframes.

1 Feb 2024

Catatan

Going to repeat what I said on stocktwits.

Hard to confirm but it's possible this is working w5 of an ending contracting diagonal coming down from that bounce to 6.70 last week or whatever it was. If this is the case expect a final punch down back around the low.

3 Feb 2024

Catatan

We got the final punch down back to the low as expected and mentioned in the previous update to potentially complete the ending contracting diagonal wave 5 on smaller timeframes. It doesn't look ideal as the contracting wedge looks almost like a parallel channel and can debate about counting out the 535 structures on the 1 minute. We will probably find out Monday or Tuesday if this is the precise pivot point or not. Monthly and weekly candle look weak but we've seen reversals after bad candlesticks. Good luck all.

31 Mar 2024

Catatan

i'll be adding early this week under $4.50 close to $4.15 target. the FOMO is hitting hard now. Instead of going to the 1:1 extension where we didn't really have an apparent count and no geometric support we now are at the bottom of the macro channel at the 1.272 extension and it looks like the elliot coount is there. the 9866 chart looks more bullish to me while the NYSE NIO chart is a bit more tricky.

2 Apr 2024

Catatan

erm i messed up that labeling lol.. whats shown in the picture should be the entire 5-3-5 zigzag Z wave.. 5 down then up where i put the 2.. finishing 5 more down

5 Apr 2024

Catatan

16 Apr 2024

Catatan

new primary count. I don't like the wxyxz, particularly the Y wave and did not get a good reaction off the 127.2% target for the proposed Z wave. the 100% level was equal to the 0.618 log retrace so it was hard to tell if it was responding to the fib extension for proposed Z or just .618. I believe that there was a ~16 month sideways correction that started around $13.01 in March 2022 that lasted until the dead cat bounce completed in July 2023 around $16.18. the macro structure being WXY shown in the chart. fib extension targets shown below. I'm going to try and check subwaves for macro X to see if its likely we can pivot any earlier than the 1:1 at $3.14 and I'm just holding as an 'investor' and not trading this with an average just above $5.

16 Apr 2024

Catatan

1.) also keep an eye on the weekly RSI low when the correction began in March 2022 and compare the current weekly RSI low to that. Pay attention to that divergence holding or breaking. this is a component for this WXY count to be valid imo.

2.) the parallel channel is broken so i'm looking at the andrews pitchfork using the WXY pivots and the reaction seems decent but extremely precise. zooming in you can see we were rejecting off the underside of the median line last week when we tested previous support at $4.78

15 Jul 2024

Trade aktif

working b or x of w2. chart is to show the extent of how large this 5 wave impulse is going to be over the next 12+ months. The fact that wave 2 is taking so long is some indication of the likely magnitude of this larger macro 5 wave impulse (macro ABC from $1.19 imo) W2 making the $173.39 & $203.21 tgts at the top of the macro channel & ML of the macro andrews' fork seem more like they could become our reality late 2025. Smart money is taking their time loading at these lvls. speculation based on exp at this point. We will see. GLTA.

4 Okt 2024

Catatan

This trade is going very well and as expected so far..

After we get above $8, I will be reviewing the chart daily to determine if we are on track or if Nio, FXI, HSI, and others are completing a corrective structure and the count posted is completely wrong. I really do not want to see overlap of top of wave 1 around $6.12 once we reach ~8.40-8.50 to potentially completely wave 3.

26 Okt 2024

Catatan

1.) bullish counts are either an expanded X or B wave within wave 2 to $7.78 and now working either Y or C down to finish wave 2 OR working subwave 2 within wave 3 which is my less likely alternative bullish scenario.

2.) Hang Seng structure that has developed since Oct 2022 is quite concerning as this could have completed a 2nd X wave and now we go down to sweep the low to finish Z (of wxyxz that originated in Jan 2018) and finish a much larger correction that began in 2007 set to pump to new all time highs in the coming years as capital continues to flow from west to east.

26 Okt 2024

Catatan

3.) I still have conviction in the NIO macro count (wxyxz from ath), but hard to imagine Nio holding up if hang seng makes a final low in the coming months/2025. Still long and just adding a few 2026 calls on dips.