NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY WEEKLY UPDATE

3 Okt 2022

GLOBAL UDPATE
-s&p 500 near a crucial junction now
-near its 200-wma
-lehmann brother like collapse in credit suisse and deustche bank doing the rounds
-market hitting peak pessimism
-record shorts in american markets
-usaully in s&p 500 a dip below 200-wma is bought heavily
-emergency fed meet(rumors doing the round) and lot of fed speakers lined up
-in european front uk cpi was a shocker
-global markets are in a serious bear grip

INDIAN MARKET UPDATE
-we are placed far better than the global markets
-last time s&p 500 tested 3600 we were near 15200
-this time we are near 17000 and s&p has broken 3600
-great auto sale numbers overall
-it indicates good health of the economy
-rbi policy statements were positive
-rbi will not like to hinder the credit growth
-we are well placed to fight the inflation front
-were the developed markets are struggling
-oil prices have come down significantly and raw material prices are down globally
-lack of demand and rising interest rate have brought the necessary changes
-if the global market seeing rebound we will be seeing outperformance on relative stregth basis
-right now the scenario is bad globally but at the same time the pessimism is reaching its peak

DXY UPDATE
-dxy major divergence on verge of climax
-weekly chart a clear shooting star pattern
-rejection from the top end of the channel
-dollar index cooling for 115-112 is a good sign for india
-rbi is ready to use the reserves
-but at the same time dollar if falls against major currencies we will not require the reserves
-i have a bear view now from here on
-i had predicted levels of 120 in dxy
-but here when all are bullish you get the picture


NIFTY TECHNICAL UPDATE
-friday rally is short-covering rally or a dead-cat bounce
-it remains to be seen
-but its clear from the current position
-16780 remain the crucial level to watch-out for
-if a close below that is achieved 16480-16420 next level of support for the market
-looking at the current scenarion we have another trading range from 16780-16180
-on save side if market consolidates in this zone and absorbs bad news
-we will see a major upmove towards 17860-17950
-we have absorbed the majority of the bad news but little global improvement will lead to developement

CRUCIAL LEVELS TO WATCH
support
16780-16850-16970
resistance
17180-17240-17430

BANKNIFTY TECHNICAL UPDATE
-it remains to be seen what negative impact the global banking rumors will have on the indian financial stocks
-i believe that our banking stocks are placed well and better than the other developed banks globally
-with a credit growth of 16%-good auto sales numbers-record collection in gst numbers things are looking positive
-still i would like to see the initial impact on markets
-dxy climax divergence in place
-strong credit growth
-rbi support to provide strength to banks
-strong bullish candle in banknifty
-reversal candle on weekly chart but lets wat and watch
-still for me banknifty needs to trade above 39750
-if does then our fist target of 41500 is already reached we may move towards the second target
-strange trade is placed in banknifty monthly options
-some one is writing deep itm put of 43000
-same on the downside@37000
-eating premium might be the goal
-although banknifty is looking good i will wait and watch in banknifty


CRUCIAL LEVELS
support
38200-37850-37600
resistance
39000-39400-39775



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