Nifty : Will it bottom out around 11000 ?

13 Mei 2019

As evident from the daily chart, we are seeing 70-80% mirror type image and situation in Nifty. Index gave negative cross over on ADX (-DMI crossed DMI line to the upside) on 11-Sep-18 and after that market fell by more than 1250 points. It didn't hold trendline support and kept falling. 10 DEMA had already signaled negative trend when it crossed 20 DEMA to down side( down arrow). Same is happened this time. First, DEMA crossover then ADX crossover. Index is trading on 38.2 % retracement support of 11145 and last major swing support of 11118. However, this supports are unlikely to hold as the negative momentum on ADX is very strong. Next major support are at 11020 (200 DEMA support), 11000 (1st trendline support). It has to be seen whether market holds this support in such a strong downward momentum. If index breaks 11000 zone then next major support lies in the range of 10860-10900 which should hold, if it is a mirror image of the last down fall. In the last fall , market took support on the second trend line and then rose by 300 points. 21st Sept 18 became black Friday when market fell close to 500 points from intraday top.

Let's see whether market holds 11000 or 10850 as the support. On uspide resistance are 11311, 11352 and 11425. If we see market rebounding without touching any of the mentioned support then trader can create short at the mentioned resistance level with stop loss above 11450 on daily closing basis.

13 Mei 2019

Catatan

This view is valid till 20th May. After 20th, we'll watch for major swing in market and then take trade.

15 Mei 2019

Trade aktif

Nifty couldn't reach 11311 and stopped midway at 11286 by sellers which pushes prices to 11138. It is still bearish but the range of 11100 -11350 needs to be broken for clear direction. If breaks 11100 then short with stop loss of 11180. Otherwise wait for rise towards the higher end of range for short position.

16 Mei 2019

Trade aktif

As expected, index is still trading in range after posting low at 11140. CMP 11252. We'll wait for further rise towards 11352-11380 zone to create short.

18 Mei 2019

Trade aktif

As told to create short position in between 11352-11380 range, it has been created and market has closed above short range at 11407. Traders in short position should not get carried away with the upward momentum. Wait and hold position with minor stop loss of 11450 ( daily closing ) or major stop loss of 11525 (daily closing).

20 Mei 2019

Trade aktif

Index has opened with gap and now trading at 11680. Wait till the market closing. If giving close above 11600 then exit. Otherwise hold position with modified closing stop loss of 11600

20 Mei 2019

Trading ditutup: stop tercapai

Market closed at 11828. SL triggered