Nifty Projection & expected chart till 2029

27 Okt

I believe that the rally of April 2003- Jan 2008 will be eventually duplicated between Jan 2020 - April 2029.

The theory is as per follows:-

1. The rally of 2003-08 was in several but majorly 3 phases of rally and sharp corrections.
2. The bull market of 2020-29 will be a 10x multiple but with same percentage returns (absolute returns) in twice the time period; So for example Nifty took 9 months from Apr 2003-Dec 2003 to go up from 930 to 1900 approx 100% return whereas the same percentage retun at 10x scale from approx 8-9k to 18k ie 100% return this time took April 2020-Oct 2021 ie 18 months approx.
3. Since the rallies are taking double the time this time hence the corrections are only 50% of the percentage corrections that happened during 2003-08 phase.

27 Okt

Catatan

So here are the detailed numbers:-

1. The First Leg of the Bull Market

April 2003 - Jan 2004 (9 Months) Nifty went up from 930 to 2011 (+116% in 9 Months)
vs
April 2020 - Oct 2021 (18 Months) Nifty went up from 8000 to 18300 (+128% in 18 Months)

Hence the returns were almost the same except that the time taken was double than that of previous bull market. Also see that the numbers we see are almost exactly 9-10x of the numbers of the 2003-08 period.


2. The Correction & Time based consolidation

Jan 2004 to Jan 2005 - the next 12 months - there was a broad correction, consolidation and small breakout towards the end of the period. Broadly correction was 2011 to 1300 (almost 30%) but the period ended in April 2005 at around 2100 (+5% than previous peak in Jan 2004).

In similar parallel red channel the Nifty consolidated for 12 months X 2 = 24 months from Oct 2021 to Oct 2023. In this period the Nifty corrected from 18557 to 15158 or almost 16-17% i.e. half of the correction of 2004-05 phase. Hence rule 2 holds good that corrections will be in double the time and half the amount of correction.

3. The Phase 2 Part 1 of the next rally.

From early May 2005 to Sep 2005 the Nifty rallied fast and furious from low of 1900 to high of 2630 in just 5 months i.e. 38% in 5 months.

Surprisingly, Nifty in Nov end 2023 to Sep 2024 or approx 10 months rallied from low of 18800 to 26200 (10x the numbers in previous period) same percentage rally in Double the time i.e. 38% in 10 months.

4. The latest Crash of Oct 2024 vs the Market Crash of October 2025.

In Oct 2005 the Nifty corrected sharply for 4 consecutive weeks from 2670 to 2310 i.e. 13.50% correction.
In Oct 2024 the Nifty corrected sharply for 4 consecutive weeks (though should have taken 8 weeks as per our hypothesis) from 26200 to 24180 i.e. 7.70% which is almost just half of the correction of Oct 2005.

27 Okt

Catatan

Forward Projections:-

1. Post correction of Oct 2005 of a massive 14% the markets recovered to old highs in just 1 month by end of Nov 2005. And thereafter rallied from 2650 to a massive 3750 by May 2006 - a massive return of 42% in a mere 5-6 months.

So this time around we should expect Nifty to recover from 24200 to 26200 in a mere 1 month and probably 2 or somewhere in middle. I am sure most people and MF investors would sell at those levels and markets would eventually rally a massive 42% from 26200 to 37500 levels in next (5-6 months X2) i.e. 10-12 months i.e By Sep-Nov, 2025.

2. If these next 2 things were to happen be sure that post 37-38k levels on Nifty we will have a huge correction. From May 2006 to June 2006 in just 4 weeks the Nifty had crashed from 3750 to 2650 (-30%) giving up all its gains of last 5-6 months. So if in Sep-Dec 2025 you see a high of 37-38k on Nifty you will see a sharp correction but only 50% of the correction of May-June 2005 i.e. 50% of -30% i.e. a massive 15% i.e. from 37500 to 32000!

3. Eventually after another 6 months 37k should be reached again by mid of 2026. (comparing with June 2006-Oct 2006).

4. The last leg of the Bull market will start thereafter - a comparison of Nov 2006-Jan 2008 or 14 months which in this case will be a 28 months rally from mid of 2026 for 26-28 months ie. around April 2029 when Nifty will top at around 60,000-63000.

And then a crash again...