NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

10 Jun 2023

The past week move really managed to scale higher levels than the Fib projection of 18720 as observed in the previous blog. Final two sessions saw the index coming under selling pressure and finally closed at 18564 which is a tad higher than the previous week’s close.

A few observations from the weekly charts are:

• The index moved in a range of 246 points viz. between 18531 and 18771
  
• The oscillators of different time frames are showing marginally negative signals
  
• Option open interest to drive the direction of the market
  

 
Expected scenarios for the ensuing week
almost the same as that of the previous week. However, there could be a tendency to sell on every spike till we see a close above 18700
The index has made primary base at 18060 followed by another base at 18200 and the next at 18450-470 range
Index may find supports at 18420,18280, 17140 and the index could face resistances at multiple levels 18660.18770,18930
Additional interesting observations

• As observed in the previous blog index has cleared the monthly peak levels of the past viz. 18134(Feb 23 High), 18251(Jan 23 High), and 18251(Jan 23 High),18350(Jan 22 High)
  
• The Index is entering positive territory and may remain biddish till we see a weekly close below 18250
  
• The observations of the previous Blogs repeated for quick reference with fine tuning: The Index broke the downward sloping channel starting Nov 22 which was having a height of around 850 points. The target from the Break-out levels suggest that this rally has potential till 18650-800 with hurdles on every 200 points starting 18180
  
• On weekly charts the Index has formed an irregular Inv H&S with about 850-900 points from the neckline which targets around 18900
  
• There had been multiple Gaps created during the up move (These are for quick reference as these are risk zones for sharp moves)
  
• 17126-17221(far away for now)
  
• 16650-16770 (far away for now)
  
• 16360-16560 (far away for now)
  

Final Note

• The Index has stayed well above the long-term trend line and the 200 DMA at 17870
  
• Index is moving in an Upward sloping channel with top around 18940 and support at 18340 with a Pivot at 18640
  
• A word of caution
  
• Index has made higher highs and lower lows
  
• A new trend seems to be emerging towards attempt of earlier peaks or even towards posting an ATH.
  
• As noted in the previous blog, the index has been making alternate bullish and bearish candles for the past 7 weeks. Last week appear to be an exception as it made consecutive bearish candle. While we may see choppy moves ahead of FED, there could be pull back during the second half of the week.
  
• Expected to remain in the range of 17420-18840 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk
  
• A daily close below 18420 would see the Index drift towards 18230
  

#Stay Safe

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.