29 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - 60% neutral 40% bullish
Nifty Analysis
Yesterday we had a neutral call on Nifty “Most importantly the 19310 support/resistance stands in between. A break in support may cause Nifty to follow the bearish channel. Whereas a breach in resistance will give Nifty breakout momentum as it exits the falling wedge. I wish to go with a neutral stance for tomorrow till we get some clarity.” You may not believe it, but today’s price action was between the 19310 horizontal support and the descending trend line.
The momentum was just not there to break the support nor break the trend line. We had 3 attempts each and all three of them failed. The open was gapup right at the trend line and we fell to the support by 10.25. From there we had a steady rise till 13.30 where we retested the trendline again but faced rejections.
The 2nd fall to the support came at 14.20 which was quick but lacking force. At 14.55, I seriously thought the support would get breached - instead we shot up to the trendline to close exactly on it.
On the 1hr TF, it seems like Nifty is coming under immense pressure to pick a direction. All clues are hinting at a bullish breakout as the support is too strong to be broken. The only reason the breakout is not happening may be because the big-bears have still not given up or booked profits. If new bears are not taking fresh shorts, then the existing short-sellers may have to run for cover as the market has a natural tendency to move up if it stays like this.
For tomorrow, I have a 60% neutral and 40% bullish view as we are right at the upper channel and above the support. If Nifty is unable to exit the channel in the first 90mts, I will look for neutral positions only. And if the lower channel is tested - I would like to convert my current positions to bearish ones.
Yesterday we had a neutral call on Nifty “Most importantly the 19310 support/resistance stands in between. A break in support may cause Nifty to follow the bearish channel. Whereas a breach in resistance will give Nifty breakout momentum as it exits the falling wedge. I wish to go with a neutral stance for tomorrow till we get some clarity.” You may not believe it, but today’s price action was between the 19310 horizontal support and the descending trend line.
The momentum was just not there to break the support nor break the trend line. We had 3 attempts each and all three of them failed. The open was gapup right at the trend line and we fell to the support by 10.25. From there we had a steady rise till 13.30 where we retested the trendline again but faced rejections.
The 2nd fall to the support came at 14.20 which was quick but lacking force. At 14.55, I seriously thought the support would get breached - instead we shot up to the trendline to close exactly on it.
On the 1hr TF, it seems like Nifty is coming under immense pressure to pick a direction. All clues are hinting at a bullish breakout as the support is too strong to be broken. The only reason the breakout is not happening may be because the big-bears have still not given up or booked profits. If new bears are not taking fresh shorts, then the existing short-sellers may have to run for cover as the market has a natural tendency to move up if it stays like this.
For tomorrow, I have a 60% neutral and 40% bullish view as we are right at the upper channel and above the support. If Nifty is unable to exit the channel in the first 90mts, I will look for neutral positions only. And if the lower channel is tested - I would like to convert my current positions to bearish ones.
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