Nifty: December monthly Expiry view
Diupdate
Nifty
- Nifty has had a nice pullback from the lows of 17780 odd levels this week
- today it respected 50 day EMA at 18164 odd levels
- Will the pullback continue or will it stop???
Let's look at Futures and Options data
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F&O Data analysis
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Futures Data
- Retail participants booked profits / exited 4.4 K Long Contracts & added 7.67 K Short contracts
- FIIs added merely 580 Long Contracts and exited from 2.80 K Short Contracts
- Pro traders added 5.32 K Long contracts and exited from 1.09 K Short contracts
Call Option
- Retail participants added 5.93 Lakhs Call Long Contracts & added 4.82 Lakh Call Short contracts
- FIIs added 2 K Call Long Contracts and added only 778 Call Short Contracts
- Pro traders added 92.56 K Call Long contracts and added 2.04 Lakh Call Short contracts
Put Option
- Retail participants added 3.85 Lakh Put Long Contracts & added 3.80 Lakh Put Short contracts
- FIIs added 5.43 K Put Long Contracts and added 11.85 K Short Contracts
- Pro traders added 70.15 K Put Long contracts and added 88.14 K Put Short contracts
Put Call ratio is at 1.13 (Neutral zone)
____________________________________________________________________________________
What we make from the data reading...
Retail traders have been exiting from Long position since last 3 days.
FIIs are in holiday mood ( not trading actively in F&O)
Pro traders have been exiting from short positions in Futures in last 3 days and have added Long position in Futures today. They have used Options to hedge their position.
____________________________________________________________________________________
Conclusion and important levels for the day
As I am writing, our Dow baba (Dow Jones) is down 300 points, but based on Nifty Chart set up and F&O data, prima facie I'm not expecting a big down fall.
The battle is our space in between Pro traders and retail traders.
My closing figure for Nifty expiry day
On the lower side 18048 / 18033 / 18011
On the upper side 18155 / 18181 / 18233
With tomorrow being expiry day, pls understand Markets are dynamic and data changes every moment. This view can change during market hours and I may or may not be able to update the same. Trading Options on expiry day require more skills, more study and then there is luck that may favor you :-).
Pls do your research and follow risk management. Read the disclaimer carefully.
____________________________________________________________________________________
Do let me know if you find the analysis and insights helpful.
Like and Follow for more ideas like these...!!!
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
- Nifty has had a nice pullback from the lows of 17780 odd levels this week
- today it respected 50 day EMA at 18164 odd levels
- Will the pullback continue or will it stop???
Let's look at Futures and Options data
____________________________________________________________________________________
F&O Data analysis
____________________________________________________________________________________
Futures Data
- Retail participants booked profits / exited 4.4 K Long Contracts & added 7.67 K Short contracts
- FIIs added merely 580 Long Contracts and exited from 2.80 K Short Contracts
- Pro traders added 5.32 K Long contracts and exited from 1.09 K Short contracts
Call Option
- Retail participants added 5.93 Lakhs Call Long Contracts & added 4.82 Lakh Call Short contracts
- FIIs added 2 K Call Long Contracts and added only 778 Call Short Contracts
- Pro traders added 92.56 K Call Long contracts and added 2.04 Lakh Call Short contracts
Put Option
- Retail participants added 3.85 Lakh Put Long Contracts & added 3.80 Lakh Put Short contracts
- FIIs added 5.43 K Put Long Contracts and added 11.85 K Short Contracts
- Pro traders added 70.15 K Put Long contracts and added 88.14 K Put Short contracts
Put Call ratio is at 1.13 (Neutral zone)
____________________________________________________________________________________
What we make from the data reading...
Retail traders have been exiting from Long position since last 3 days.
FIIs are in holiday mood ( not trading actively in F&O)
Pro traders have been exiting from short positions in Futures in last 3 days and have added Long position in Futures today. They have used Options to hedge their position.
____________________________________________________________________________________
Conclusion and important levels for the day
As I am writing, our Dow baba (Dow Jones) is down 300 points, but based on Nifty Chart set up and F&O data, prima facie I'm not expecting a big down fall.
The battle is our space in between Pro traders and retail traders.
My closing figure for Nifty expiry day
On the lower side 18048 / 18033 / 18011
On the upper side 18155 / 18181 / 18233
With tomorrow being expiry day, pls understand Markets are dynamic and data changes every moment. This view can change during market hours and I may or may not be able to update the same. Trading Options on expiry day require more skills, more study and then there is luck that may favor you :-).
Pls do your research and follow risk management. Read the disclaimer carefully.
____________________________________________________________________________________
Do let me know if you find the analysis and insights helpful.
Like and Follow for more ideas like these...!!!
Take care & safe trading...!!!
Disclaimer
- The view expressed here is my personal view
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too
- Use this for educational purpose
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk
- Do take proper risk management measures
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
Catatan
Nifty is at the lower end of the channel. Im buying Nifty Jan Futures with small SL
Trading ditutup: target tercapai
You can call it a fluke... you can call it a Lucky bouy guess
or you can acknowledge that the study paid for the efforts put in...
Feels good when your study works to perfection. Yesterday it was late night for my study to get completed...but boy oh boy it has paid rich dividends....😍
- Dow was down more than 300 points
- Asian markets were down and out and yet in morning, instead of panicking, we suggested to buy... and the results are in front of you
Nifty has respected the lower levels and on the upper side it is in the upper zone of expiry as suggested
All there in the timeline!!!
Only possible because we had done our home work and we trusted our study...
Hope the analysis has helped you. If not, can't help it; because I can't be more precise than this...🤷♂️
To trade with me, hit the Like button and Follow
Happy trading...!!!
Trading ditutup: target tercapai
Nifty Jan FuturesBooked profits...
Shut shop for the day...!!!
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