NIFTY ANALYSIS: Revisited
Diupdate
Hi All,
If you press the play button in the following post you will see that the market overshoot a little above 11600 target marked with a yellow arrow on the chart. Not only that it overshoot the price target but it also overshoot the time target. According to fib. time zone projection, the target was to complete in March 2019. But the target was achieved in August 2018. Perhaps the market was in a hurry.
In this backdrop we can say that technical analysis do help us in understanding the market and to come out with approximations. But we may or may not have 100 percent accuracy. One has to be flexible to adapt to the market conditions.
So its an advice not to psychologically hurt yourself when the market do not follows your plan. In that case you have to follow the markets. One can't fight the market but can bravely adapt to trade with the market direction. For instance, last few weeks would have been tough for hard core bulls. But those who adapted to the bearish market conditions would have made money, perhaps more money in a few weeks than they would have made in a year or so.
The Analysis
Anyways, let's get down to the latest chart.
It could be noted that in this monthly chart, the price has been moving in side a channel. In August it seemed a new narrow bullish channel is in the making but the failure in September negated that hypothesis.
Assumptions
I am here assuming that we are in a larger corrective phase, which might take us to the lower end of the channel.
A Minor Zone
It may however find some support in the 9950-10050 zone and bounce back. Sellers may find selling opportunity in that bounce.
Correction Projections
As you can see, the previous two corrections settled down near 50% retracement levels. We can expect the same in this correction. That could drag the market to 9300 level. I would rather say that the big zone between 8700-9300 would act as a massive solid support zone. We might settle down anywhere within that area.
Time-Wise Projections
The corrections of 2011 and 2015 lasted for about a year. Same can be expected for this correction also (few months here and there). I would rather use our Fib. time zone from my previous post (shown above) to project the end of the current bearish phase. So the bearish phase might end anywhere near March-April. This analysis suggests that this year may not be good for bulls.
I hope this long term analysis would help some traders.
All the best.
Regards.
If you press the play button in the following post you will see that the market overshoot a little above 11600 target marked with a yellow arrow on the chart. Not only that it overshoot the price target but it also overshoot the time target. According to fib. time zone projection, the target was to complete in March 2019. But the target was achieved in August 2018. Perhaps the market was in a hurry.
In this backdrop we can say that technical analysis do help us in understanding the market and to come out with approximations. But we may or may not have 100 percent accuracy. One has to be flexible to adapt to the market conditions.
So its an advice not to psychologically hurt yourself when the market do not follows your plan. In that case you have to follow the markets. One can't fight the market but can bravely adapt to trade with the market direction. For instance, last few weeks would have been tough for hard core bulls. But those who adapted to the bearish market conditions would have made money, perhaps more money in a few weeks than they would have made in a year or so.
The Analysis
Anyways, let's get down to the latest chart.
It could be noted that in this monthly chart, the price has been moving in side a channel. In August it seemed a new narrow bullish channel is in the making but the failure in September negated that hypothesis.
Assumptions
I am here assuming that we are in a larger corrective phase, which might take us to the lower end of the channel.
A Minor Zone
It may however find some support in the 9950-10050 zone and bounce back. Sellers may find selling opportunity in that bounce.
Correction Projections
As you can see, the previous two corrections settled down near 50% retracement levels. We can expect the same in this correction. That could drag the market to 9300 level. I would rather say that the big zone between 8700-9300 would act as a massive solid support zone. We might settle down anywhere within that area.
Time-Wise Projections
The corrections of 2011 and 2015 lasted for about a year. Same can be expected for this correction also (few months here and there). I would rather use our Fib. time zone from my previous post (shown above) to project the end of the current bearish phase. So the bearish phase might end anywhere near March-April. This analysis suggests that this year may not be good for bulls.
I hope this long term analysis would help some traders.
All the best.
Regards.
Catatan
**Typo -- Please read the minor support zone in the chart as 9950-10050**Thanks
Catatan
On lower timeframes the index is near a rising trendline and the structure support confluence. I do expect some support coming out from the green triangular area marked on the chart below:Catatan
Nifty has been holding above the trendline support. Let's see if we see some short covering tomorrow or not. There has been a small double bottom on lower timeframes. This could be a valid stop for any fresh long positions.Catatan
Nice buying as expected yesterday.There is small resistance at 10480.
Let's see how it behaves at potential support retest 10380-10400.
Catatan
Market just touched the above mentioned 10480, which is a harmonic AB=CD pattern.It's retracing. Let's see how it behaves near 10450 shelf. May be below that would be a point to book some profits for long trades.
Risky shorts can be made below this level with tight stops. And go for reasonable targets for short positions.
Good luck.
Catatan
Weekly Support zone 9950-10050 is nearing. Let's see if it holds and give us a counter trade.All the best.
JJ Singh
Trader/Investor
Moderator, TradingView
🚀Join t.me/jjsingh_2020 ,
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Trader/Investor
Moderator, TradingView
🚀Join t.me/jjsingh_2020 ,
A Free Education channel
🚀Tweet at twitter.com/JaySingh_2020
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