I'll review what I anticipated in my post yesterday
1. Today's price action can be a swing high formation. We need to wait till Friday EOD to confirm. 2. Overall now I assume the trend is consolidation with bearish bias. 10500-10600 is significant resistance, even if gets retested, it will be hard to break it quickly. 3. Tomorrow, being expiry, I dont have idea how it'll go. NIFTY may consolidate a little or fall further towards 10200 levels. I am assuming rather broad range of 10180-10430
I did not make clear statement, but overall action looks consolidation as trend dictated.
My trades today
I did not trade today. Mostly because of many trading moves we had so far this month.
My observations for the day.
1. NIFTY moved in the relatively narrow range this expiry. It closed -0.16% lower. 2. BANKNIFTY closed 0.37% higher. 3. VIX is below 30. It gained 0.51% 4. Advance Decline ratio is 16 to 34. That is bad. 5. Option chain again showing bias towards consolidation in range of 10000-10500.
My view for tomorrow
1. NIFTY consolidated after the fall. To assess, if the fall on Wednesday was corrective or start of a new swing, I need to wait till Friday. 2. Friday, if NIFTY continues downwards journey, It may quickly succumb to pressure and move towards 10050 area soon. Closing above 10390 again, will confirm the consolidation. 3. I have a bearish bias for Friday and I will not take any trades on long side unless I see NIFTY trading above 10390.
Overall, I see today and next 2-3 sessions as key price action sessions. On weekly chart, I observe clear contraction of price range. This may lead to breakout/ breakdown soon. And usually this time break (which will likely to be on downside) has higher chances of leading to good swing move./b]
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