Indeks Nifty 50Penjualan
NIFTY50 - AN INGISHT FOR INVESTORS
Diupdate
Symbol - NIFTY50
CMP 25305
If you are a long term investor, one thing that will help you to decide when to invest - Nifty monthly RSI.
As and when RSI moved above 80, markets uniformly correctly (around 20% usually) & as and when RSI came below 40 level, markets uniformly rallied.
Now RSI is at 82
Fundamentals are also showing that overall market is modestly overvalued.
What you want to do or should you be worried ?
tell me in comments below.
P.S. : I'm out of all longs & have entered shorts.
CMP 25305
If you are a long term investor, one thing that will help you to decide when to invest - Nifty monthly RSI.
As and when RSI moved above 80, markets uniformly correctly (around 20% usually) & as and when RSI came below 40 level, markets uniformly rallied.
Now RSI is at 82
Fundamentals are also showing that overall market is modestly overvalued.
What you want to do or should you be worried ?
tell me in comments below.
P.S. : I'm out of all longs & have entered shorts.
Trade aktif
CMP 24840Trade aktif
CMP 25900
Nifty50 is blasting up because of FED rate cuts.
RSI on monthly TF is now 83.30
Adding more shorts & Increasing my short positions here.
P.S. - Whenever US FED cuts interest rates, Equity markets have given strong up move only to give an opportunity to smart money to exit at upper levels and to create short positions & then collapsed. be it 2019, 2007 or 2000
Is it same or different this time? Only time will tell!
Trade aktif
Some more insights from my weekend research :
1. March 1992
Nifty50 index started in 1996 with a 1-2 year backdated data. NSE started operations in 1994. So I have no clue where the 1992 data came from. Sensex monthly RSI was 92 in 1992 in 1985. So that also does not match.
2. Dec 2003
My data shows RSI 78.5. But fits the Curve and Narrative. The next 4 months are sideways. May 2004 elections led to the 30% correction. So now we start with the actual 80 + RSI instances.
3. April 2006
Nifty closed at 3400 on 31st March 2006. RSI at 80 +. High at 3775. Then came the 30% drop. Nifty was up almost 3x from May 2004 lows.
4. Nov 2006-Jan 2007
RSI did touch 80 + but this does not fit the curve. Only a 10-12% correction so has been passed. What would you miss if you Sold. A 50% up move. 4000 to 6300. Also after the previous 30% correction in May 2006 would get back in with a 10-12% correction.
5. Oct 2007
RSI crossed 80 and Nifty was at 5000 on 28th Sept 2007. High at 6357. 60% correction over the next 8-10 months. An initial 30% drop from Jan highs to 4450. This low did not break for next 4 months. If you sold in October start. Would have to see a 20-25% uptick. The correction would be back to 4450-4500. So a 10-15% downtick from the price you sold. It took the Global Financial Criss in later part of 2008 to take the markets down by 60% from peak and 40-50% from mid 2008.
6. Nov 2014
RSI crossed 80 and Nifty was at 8600 on 28th Nov 2014. High at 9100. An initial drop to 7950-8000 from March 2015 highs. This did not break for next 3-4 months. A correction of 19% from top. 7-10% from the point you sold.
7. Oct 2021
RSI at 79.3. Did not cross 80 but lets take it as we have Hindsight Advantage. Nifty was at 17700. An initial correction to 16400 in Dec 2021. We bent back to 18350 in Jan 2021. It took a Russia Ukraine to take it to 15500. A correction of 18%
8. July 2024
RSI crossed 80 with Nifty at 24950. As of now RSI at 84. Nifty is at 26200. Let's c when the correction comes and how much.
Trade aktif
CMP 25230
26275 to 25200 in just 4 days. Is this the start of a market crash ? Time will tell.
Trade aktif
CMP 24680
Down 6.10% from ATH.
Trade aktif
CMP 24250
7.70% gone from ATH.
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.