Historical Uptrend in Nifty since 2006

19 Mei

Being curious enough to check whether NIFTY has already run up quite-a-bit recently such that it's a time to pack the backpack and take out everything from market, we looked into the Monthly timeframe of NIFTY from 2006, roughly last 18 years. That's a good amount of time, being considering how short-lived our memories are :sic:

See the chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/KIl0fj4q/ here.

We marked out the various Falls NIFTY has encountered during last 18 years. The major lows have been marked in the chart as follows:

1. 2007 Sublime Crisis & Lehman Brothers' collape
   
2. 2016 Indian Banks NPA risen and the Demonitization/Note bandi related panic
   
3. The Pandemic Crash
   
4. The Monitory hawkishness across the globes' central banks and Rate hikes
   
5. The USA Banking mini crisis (SVB failure.
   

As our memories are shortlived, so mention more in the recent past (since 2020 March) than older ones. (Of course, for the brevity did not mention a few like Russia/Ukraine).

Now a few observations to be pointed below:

1. Other than March 2020 Pandemic, never the upward trending trendline is broken since last 18 years.
   
2. Pandemic was a lifetime/never-before experience of mankind. Whole human civilization had not experienced it ever (neither it should experience also in future ever, God forbid). Even that bottom (marked as red circle in the chart) was short lived. Within 2 quarters it's regained mostly.
   
3. The initial trendline from 2007 to 2020 was mostly 30-degree positive slope.
   
4. Whereas Post pandemic the uptrend is near 60-degree slope.
   
5. Even in this high paced upmove, the trendline was never violated even for a single month!
   

Now keeping this in mind and looking at the current India story, it is highly unlikely that we will see a downfall in the mainline broader Indian market (Nifty, Sensex etc.) at all. May be, at most, the positive slope may decelerate from 60 degree to 45 degree or so one. But we are in a structural Bullish phase in Indian market and there is absolutely no price-action indicates in chart it's going to change any soon.


Recommendation

We marked various levels in the chart in purple colors, tagging the levels (21800, 20000, 18800,
16500 etc.)
Any time, if ever Nifty falls to these levels. at least the chart does tell us to accumulate Nifty.
Every significant dip in Nifty to be bought in.
Neat/Clean/Clear indication in the chart's price action.