Indeks 100 NasdaqPembelian
My Forecast for 2022 Maret!
Diupdate
First I want to express my gratitude to the +9000 Tradingview users who started following me in 2021 and supporting me with their likes and comments. I wish you all a year full of successful trades.
I also appreciate the TradingView team's efforts to make the platform stronger in the past decade, it gives me more energy to write more detailed analysis, Nice job..!
Let's Go:
In these charts, you see S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, and Russell 200 monthly charts and their rate of change(12).
As you can see the highest 12 monthly rates of change were recorded at the end of February 2021, for all major indexes, and then markets slows down!
2021 ends with an overall performance of :
SPX:+26.89%
NDX:+26.63%
DJI:+18.73%
RUT: +13.7%
* Better to adjust these gains for Inflation which is at the highest level in the past 4 decades (+6.8% YOY).
As it is obvious it was a bad year for small caps which leads the market by +90% return by February 2021 and they end the year at the lowest rank of performance by +13.7. Their performance loomed in the past 10 months, and more than 77% of that glorious gains melted in front of the eyes of novice investors who were looking for their tickets to the Moon or Mars or other planets..!
Now, let's review the previous analysis:
A review on my analysis 3 weeks ago..!
On December 16th, 2021, I published one analysis:
In that analysis, I mentioned that higher than normal volatility is expected and Money shifts to Banks, Energy, and Telecoms.
Complex correction is the most probable scenario!
Higher volatility (increased ATR):
looking at the performance of indexes in the past 3 weeks shows:
Dow Jones: +6.42%
S&P 500: +5.64%
Russell 2000: 5.07%
Nasdaq 100: 3.75%
Now let's review the performance of the sectors and industries I mentioned in the previous analysis:
Energy: +9.74% in the past 3 weeks(Equally weight-adjusted)
OXY:+14.47%
VLO: +12.62%
PSX: +12.24%
MPC: +9.96%
XOM: +8.28%
COP: +8.24%
CVX: +6.14%
BP: +6.09%
Banks: +6.64% in the past 3 weeks(Equally weight-adjusted)
WFC: +10.47%
BAC: +9.39%
GS: +6.47%
MS: +6.16%
JPM: +6.03%
C:+1.32%
Telecom: +2.83% in the past 3 weeks(Equally weight-adjusted)
T:+9.29% (max:+10.66%)
VZ: +3.99%(max:+4.4%)
TUMS: +1.14%(max:8.68%)
CMCSA: -3.07%(max2.55%)
Overall performance of the 18 stocks:
+7.18% in the past 3 weeks(Equally weight-adjusted) which is:
12% better than DJI(+6.42), 27% better than SPX(+5.64%), 41% better than RUT (+5.07%) and 91.4% better than Nadaq100(+3.75%)..!
17 out of 18 stocks had positive returns.
14 out of 18 stocks beat the Nasdaq performance in the same timeframe!
10 out of 18 stocks beat the performance of all 4 major indexes mentioned above!
Conclusion:
1-The Energy and Banks sector could continue their rally in January 2022..!
2-Tech stocks especially those which still burn cash, will experience a hard time in 2022, and any positive must be considered as transitory!
3-Small caps may experience lower prices and even Negative returns in 2022.
4-SPX, NDX, and DJI could have 10-15% returns in 2022.
5-Keep in mind that 12 monthly rates of change decreased by half in the past 10 months for SPX, NDX, and DJI which means expected market ROI should be lower in 2022 in comparison to 2021 and 2020!
6-For small caps this phenomenon is even worse, they lost 85% of their gains, and continuation of this phenomenon could lead to a negative return in 2022. ( Fundamentals also support depreciation of unprofitable business in high inflation era)
7- 2022 will be the year for those who know how to handle high volatility! A year for aggressive portfolio management strategies!
I will provide updates for this analysis as needed.
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
I also appreciate the TradingView team's efforts to make the platform stronger in the past decade, it gives me more energy to write more detailed analysis, Nice job..!
Let's Go:
In these charts, you see S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, and Russell 200 monthly charts and their rate of change(12).
As you can see the highest 12 monthly rates of change were recorded at the end of February 2021, for all major indexes, and then markets slows down!
2021 ends with an overall performance of :
SPX:+26.89%
NDX:+26.63%
DJI:+18.73%
RUT: +13.7%
* Better to adjust these gains for Inflation which is at the highest level in the past 4 decades (+6.8% YOY).
As it is obvious it was a bad year for small caps which leads the market by +90% return by February 2021 and they end the year at the lowest rank of performance by +13.7. Their performance loomed in the past 10 months, and more than 77% of that glorious gains melted in front of the eyes of novice investors who were looking for their tickets to the Moon or Mars or other planets..!
Now, let's review the previous analysis:
A review on my analysis 3 weeks ago..!
On December 16th, 2021, I published one analysis:
In that analysis, I mentioned that higher than normal volatility is expected and Money shifts to Banks, Energy, and Telecoms.
Complex correction is the most probable scenario!
Higher volatility (increased ATR):
looking at the performance of indexes in the past 3 weeks shows:
Dow Jones: +6.42%
S&P 500: +5.64%
Russell 2000: 5.07%
Nasdaq 100: 3.75%
Now let's review the performance of the sectors and industries I mentioned in the previous analysis:
Energy: +9.74% in the past 3 weeks(Equally weight-adjusted)
OXY:+14.47%
VLO: +12.62%
PSX: +12.24%
MPC: +9.96%
XOM: +8.28%
COP: +8.24%
CVX: +6.14%
BP: +6.09%
Banks: +6.64% in the past 3 weeks(Equally weight-adjusted)
WFC: +10.47%
BAC: +9.39%
GS: +6.47%
MS: +6.16%
JPM: +6.03%
C:+1.32%
Telecom: +2.83% in the past 3 weeks(Equally weight-adjusted)
T:+9.29% (max:+10.66%)
VZ: +3.99%(max:+4.4%)
TUMS: +1.14%(max:8.68%)
CMCSA: -3.07%(max2.55%)
Overall performance of the 18 stocks:
+7.18% in the past 3 weeks(Equally weight-adjusted) which is:
12% better than DJI(+6.42), 27% better than SPX(+5.64%), 41% better than RUT (+5.07%) and 91.4% better than Nadaq100(+3.75%)..!
17 out of 18 stocks had positive returns.
14 out of 18 stocks beat the Nasdaq performance in the same timeframe!
10 out of 18 stocks beat the performance of all 4 major indexes mentioned above!
Conclusion:
1-The Energy and Banks sector could continue their rally in January 2022..!
2-Tech stocks especially those which still burn cash, will experience a hard time in 2022, and any positive must be considered as transitory!
3-Small caps may experience lower prices and even Negative returns in 2022.
4-SPX, NDX, and DJI could have 10-15% returns in 2022.
5-Keep in mind that 12 monthly rates of change decreased by half in the past 10 months for SPX, NDX, and DJI which means expected market ROI should be lower in 2022 in comparison to 2021 and 2020!
6-For small caps this phenomenon is even worse, they lost 85% of their gains, and continuation of this phenomenon could lead to a negative return in 2022. ( Fundamentals also support depreciation of unprofitable business in high inflation era)
7- 2022 will be the year for those who know how to handle high volatility! A year for aggressive portfolio management strategies!
I will provide updates for this analysis as needed.
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Catatan
Read this part once again: Conclusion:1-The Energy and Banks sector could continue their rally in January 2022..!
2-Tech stocks especially those which still burn cash, will experience a hard time in 2022, and any positive must be considered as transitory!
3-Small caps may experience lower prices and even Negative returns in 2022.
4-SPX, NDX, and DJI could have 10-15% returns in 2022.
5-Keep in mind that 12 monthly rates of change decreased by half in the past 10 months for SPX , NDX, and DJI which means expected market ROI should be lower in 2022 in comparison to 2021 and 2020!
6-For small caps this phenomenon is even worse, they lost 85% of their gains, and continuation of this phenomenon could lead to a negative return in 2022. ( Fundamentals also support depreciation of unprofitable business in high inflation era)
7- 2022 will be the year for those who know how to handle high volatility! A year for aggressive portfolio management strategies!
I will provide updates for this analysis as needed.
Catatan
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