The bears are awake

Oleh wsbza

Diupdate

Close below 1.21545 would at least eliminate the alternative triangle correction

Catatan

We may label the internal structure differently but it will not alter the overall structure

Catatan

Bearish count

We could expect a 5 waves sequence to complete larger degree wave 1 or A
Green wave (i) ended at 1.2216, close above this level would argue a different wave count

short-term target 1: 1.1992 if green wave (iii) equals to 1.618 times the length of wave (i)
short-term target 2: 1.1827 if blue wave {iii} equals to 1.618 times the length of wave {i}
short-term target 3: end of wave 4 at 1.1554

Catatan

2.618 Fib extension at 1.17312

Catatan

the dollar index says Euro may decline further

Catatan

short-term bear still alive

Catatan

alter count: ending diagonal to complete green wave (v)
red wave 1 circle = blue iii of green (v)
red wave 2 circle = blue iv of green (v)
but we need a swift rally breaking the end of red wave 2 circle first
there is no price evidence to confirm the above count so far

Catatan

expecting blue wave iv circle correction will end within 38.2% - 50% retracement level

Catatan

blue wave iv circle is still under way

Catatan

grey triangle wave {iv} or blue wave (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) for {v}

Catatan

the triangle could be the best interpretation so far

Catatan

break above wave (c) high of 1.17908 would invalid the triangle count

Catatan

short-term sell set up

Catatan

ready for sell again?

Catatan

it seems wave (e) of {iv} is still unfolding

Catatan

wave (e) could be a double zigzag w-x-y or a-b-c-d-e triangle

Catatan

time to secure some profits

Catatan

possible count 1

Catatan

possible count 2

Catatan

another new low is still possible, no need to rush into catch the bottom

Catatan

EURO has broken the red wave (i) low today. it tells us this is not wave (iv) correction, which also suggests the above bullish case is under way.
We can still argue the red (i) to (v) could be only wave (i) of {v} of 1 or A, but i think it's less likely to happen.
A solid close above the end of wave {iv} at 1.1747 would confirm the 5-waves decline sequence since February has ended

Catatan

expanded flat ?

Catatan

almost there?

Catatan

a lower degree bullish flag would signal a good buy opportunity

Catatan

It seems we can label the sub wave v of (c) as an ending diagonal

Catatan

bullish target towards 1.18647 where wave {c} travels the same distance as wave {a}

Catatan

break below green wave {b} low at 1.14322 would activate alternative count in grey

Catatan

let's review the larger structure

Catatan

any close below the blue wave {b} low would argue wave 2 or B finished at 1.18153 (Sept high)

Catatan

the short-term key support level is the end of blue wave {b} at 1.13021, break below this would eliminate the wave and green count.

Catatan

time to adopt more bearish count

Catatan

bearish count

Catatan

The short-term pattern does not look bearish, maybe a complex {ii} or even wave 2 (or B) is still unfolding

Catatan

It is possible to count wave {ii} has finished at 1.14968 (2nd Jan), where sub wave (c) is an ending diagonal. But the correction could be more complex.

Catatan

idealised selling opportunity

Catatan

bearish assumption

Catatan

if wave B is a triangle, then wave C could be an ending diagonal

Catatan

short-term count if an ending diagonal for wave C in the making

Catatan

other possible structure

Catatan

possible short-term count

Catatan

wave C done

wsbza

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

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