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Short-term Sell Setup

Oleh wsbza

Diupdate

Sell after corrective pull back, simply to catch wave 3 or c decline

Catatan

could be a double zigzag correction

Catatan

could not rule out a larger flat correction

Catatan

there is a bearish count right now, but we need to see a relatively strong decline to prove wave 3 is under way

Catatan

could be more complex than I thought

Catatan

If this is an ending diagonal, we should see price re-test sub wave (3) high (usually higher than wave (3) but should not breach the origin of blue wave 1 or a) then a sharp decline fall below the end of sub wave (4).

Since the reversal after ending diagonal usually very quick and sharp, it could be difficult to enter the trade manually, we could probably place a stop sell order just 1 point below the end of wave (4) (only if we see the wave (5) rally first).

Catatan

The short-term bearish target would be re-test the end of blue wave 1 or a at 7391

Catatan

The starting point of the blue wave 1 has been broken, we need to figure out something else

Catatan

maybe this is how it ends

Catatan

A close below 7391 (end of blue wave {iv}) would indicate diagonal is complete.

Catatan

7604 should act as the short-term key resistance, break above this level would eliminate the immediate bearish potential. In other words, if the diagonal count is correct, we will be likely to see an impulsive decline to follow. To keep the impulsive assumption alive, wave 4 should not overlap with wave 1.

Catatan

could be another leg down to complete the initial 5 waves sequence

Catatan

The alter count may turn out to be a Flat

Catatan

double zigzag w-x-y where wave x could be zigzag or triangle

Catatan

Flat is less likely to happen

Catatan

more bearish count in blue
an expanding leading diagonal to start the blue wave {iii}?

Catatan

Short-term count could be:
Blue {i}-{ii} followed by pink (i)-(ii);
Grey {i}-{ii};
Grey {i}-(a)/{ii}

Catatan

another solid close below yesterday's low of 6534 would suggest wave iii of (iii) is likely under way

Catatan

double zigzag w-x-y re-test the end of blue wave iv ? or 0.618 fib level?

Catatan

medium term bearish count

Catatan

other than the very bearish 1-2-{i}-{ii}-(i)-(ii) count, it is also possible to have a 1-2 followed by diagonal {i} then we could have a recovery {ii} to construct a right shoulder of a very large head&shoulder pattern

Catatan

short0term bearish count

wsbza

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

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