Long-term technical analysis on MU

12 Sep 2018

First off, I know I'm not using the wave feature right, but I used it just to compare patterns from the late 90's and early 2000's.

I don't have time to give an in depth opinion as to why I think we are seeing similar activity right now, I'll update this when I have time and explain. But best case scenario I think we see a little more pullback and a big run up over the next few years, worst case it eats it and then finds bottom and runs up.

12 Sep 2018

Catatan

Update: unless there is a broader market crash or financial crisis, I expect MU to make one of the moves indicated. One reason I think that it is not going to crash as it did in 2016 is because the memory is so recent, people are well aware that cyclic prices in memory can strike. However, I think people have too good a memory; I say that because I think MU is fundamentally undervalued despite the risk of memory prices crashing. We see a PE ratio of around 4, and a forward PE around 3.5, and a crazy 5 yr PEG of 0.10. In other words, even if memory prices plummet it is so undervalued to begin with I can't see it driving it down much further. The anticipation has caused MU to be extremely undervalued.

While I am not buying right now, because I avoid buying falling knives, from a value perspective this is a great buy (though I'd wait for stabilization in price to do so).

I intended on making this about technical analysis, as I think it's fairly convincing, but I think the fundamental value of MU is even more convincing.

Let me know your thoughts,

-Kristian