MTN Group – How I’m Seeing It:
I discussed on the share on 18 March at 19714c, highlighting the potential for a sideways consolidation. I also recently flagged a long trade from 15932c (entry) to 16950c (target). We have since seen a sharp decline to R140, coinciding with the general market weakness. How I’m seeing it now: (1) price extended to the downside vs it’s quarterly pivot. This range of extension often sees a reversion to the mean (see my April Shoprite short idea at R245 as an example). (2) the share is trading at 2.5 to 3x it’s mean of it’s 200-day linear regression channel. I’m looking for the share to start building a near-term around currently levels or slightly lower. Note: this may not be the exact short term bottom however on a medium term basis, the share is starting to trade in ‘near oversold’ territory.
I discussed on the share on 18 March at 19714c, highlighting the potential for a sideways consolidation. I also recently flagged a long trade from 15932c (entry) to 16950c (target). We have since seen a sharp decline to R140, coinciding with the general market weakness. How I’m seeing it now: (1) price extended to the downside vs it’s quarterly pivot. This range of extension often sees a reversion to the mean (see my April Shoprite short idea at R245 as an example). (2) the share is trading at 2.5 to 3x it’s mean of it’s 200-day linear regression channel. I’m looking for the share to start building a near-term around currently levels or slightly lower. Note: this may not be the exact short term bottom however on a medium term basis, the share is starting to trade in ‘near oversold’ territory.
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