Negative signals on Microsoft as AI plumet on the way

4 Sep

We identify a negative shoulder-head-shoulder formation which at it's end touches the 200 day line, all ahead of today's news that the chip maker's market is plumeting. Additional put/sell signals are triggered when the trend lines confirm or the price won't come back over 200D.

Microsoft is renown for its involvement in AI products, especially in OpenAI. The demand for chips halted when NVIDIA recently postponed the release of Blackwell, the next generation of AI-propelling chips. Data centers equipping for future demands on AI business withhold investments as they won't run with the current generation of chips for the short period of time until Blackwell is launching, but with the latest generation and cutting-edge technology for the maximum time possible.

Meanwhile the think tank and advisor to U.S. Military and Government, RAND Corporation, surveyed why AI projects in the industry fail:

• Miscommunication or misunderstanding what problems need to be solved using AI, following a false perception of what AI can actually do - beginning with the impression the term "AI" makes to non-tech persons.
  
• Organizations lack the necessary data to adequately train effective AI models. The necessary amount of data might never be acquired due to diverse obstacles on collecting them.
  
• Organizations focus more on using the latest and greatest technology than on solving real problems for their intended users. Therefore, the circle of problems where AI solutions are applicable, might not be as big as initially thought. This is what happened to the blockchain.
• Organizations might not have adequate infrastructure to manage their data and deploy completed AI models, which increases the likelihood of project failure. Infrastructure for serious AI is exhaustive and needs up to 300-times bigger databases and hardware equipment than for regular software services. Then again, you have to feed it all with the required amount of data, of which, as pointed out earlier, is not enough there.
  
• AI projects fail because the technology is applied to problems that are too difficult for AI to solve. This is a general problem on the current generation of AI, as it lacks the required spark of creativity to originate ideas which are not based on patterns earlier learned. In other terms, generative, LLM-based AI, which is the current generation, would never be able to be a pioneer in anything, because it remixes mash-ups from earlier experience, at best!
  

The current dips of chip makers, combined with the problems of sourcing sufficient data and industry becoming more and more disenchanted with AI, might trigger another tech bubble burst, which, if it happens, would be imminent right now.

11 Sep

Catatan

Tomorrow the price either confirms or breaks the pattern.

12 Sep

Order dibatalkan

The price action broke the pattern.