Trader's Q and A
Diupdate
A trader has messaged me privately, has confessed that for past 6 years he had been trying hard to make TA & Elliott Wave work for him and its not turning around and shall he continue the effort or drop it? Shall he entirely drop stock market altogether?
Answer:
Whatever I will say here I will say on the basis of my own direct experience, will say only the truth and will say it boldly and directly. If it hurts anyone here, my apologies in advance.
In my own personal experience, TA and Elliott Wave both do not work. People pick them up, because they seem easy, in forums like these everyone is using TA tools like trend limes, indicators etc, and also every other blog is dedicated to TA and EW only, so beginners also pick them up. Herd mentality is at play here - "because every one is using it, it must be working". But unfortunately that's not the case. Any tool which is being used by 80% of the people in the market is simply bound to fail.
Look at the truth, TA is more than 100 years old, and still in the top 1000 richest people list you will not find any TA! But you will find many Value Investors, and value investing is hardly ever discussed in forums and blogs!
Its not that there is absolutely nothing in TA, there are indeed some methods which work, but they have some capital drawdown which requires you to manage money very strictly and properly. You cannot deploy more than 30% of capital at a time while using them. And when you do that you also bring down your CAGR, so much so that your CAGR becomes much lower than what is available in value investing. There is no wonder that Value Investors keep dominating the richest list!
Elliott Wave also does not go too far. There is so much of ambiguity in Elliott Wave (and mind it, I know Pretcher's Elliott Wave, Neo lliott Wave and also Harmonic Elliott Wave) that experts always almost differ in their counting till the time the move is complete. If its so much ambiguous how will you make money using it?
My advise is that after 6 years of losses, please better quit trading. There are other avenues in life where money can be made. Do some kind of job, save regularly, make FDs etc. But please for God's sake do not give away your hard earned money for free to others.
Also check Rupam's post which was on a similar line:
Answer:
Whatever I will say here I will say on the basis of my own direct experience, will say only the truth and will say it boldly and directly. If it hurts anyone here, my apologies in advance.
In my own personal experience, TA and Elliott Wave both do not work. People pick them up, because they seem easy, in forums like these everyone is using TA tools like trend limes, indicators etc, and also every other blog is dedicated to TA and EW only, so beginners also pick them up. Herd mentality is at play here - "because every one is using it, it must be working". But unfortunately that's not the case. Any tool which is being used by 80% of the people in the market is simply bound to fail.
Look at the truth, TA is more than 100 years old, and still in the top 1000 richest people list you will not find any TA! But you will find many Value Investors, and value investing is hardly ever discussed in forums and blogs!
Its not that there is absolutely nothing in TA, there are indeed some methods which work, but they have some capital drawdown which requires you to manage money very strictly and properly. You cannot deploy more than 30% of capital at a time while using them. And when you do that you also bring down your CAGR, so much so that your CAGR becomes much lower than what is available in value investing. There is no wonder that Value Investors keep dominating the richest list!
Elliott Wave also does not go too far. There is so much of ambiguity in Elliott Wave (and mind it, I know Pretcher's Elliott Wave, Neo lliott Wave and also Harmonic Elliott Wave) that experts always almost differ in their counting till the time the move is complete. If its so much ambiguous how will you make money using it?
My advise is that after 6 years of losses, please better quit trading. There are other avenues in life where money can be made. Do some kind of job, save regularly, make FDs etc. But please for God's sake do not give away your hard earned money for free to others.
Also check Rupam's post which was on a similar line:
Catatan
I just forgot to mention here that trading Timewave with me is an equally valid and in fact a better option! :)
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