Equities at a turning point, and bonds peaking
This year we've seen yields trade higher and equities lower, and breakdown of the uncorrelated relationship driven by inflation and rate rise expectations.
However, 9th May may have marked the turning point. Yields are moving in step with equities, a return to the 'normal' relationship (and diversification).
So Equities and bonds are sniffing out the probability that growth is going to keep slowing pushing the US into a recession and the Fed in turn may change course.
Is the bottom in? Equities have priced in 2.5-3% rates, further downside would be a severe growth slowdown. But in bonds it looks like we're seeing a peak in yields.
However, 9th May may have marked the turning point. Yields are moving in step with equities, a return to the 'normal' relationship (and diversification).
So Equities and bonds are sniffing out the probability that growth is going to keep slowing pushing the US into a recession and the Fed in turn may change course.
Is the bottom in? Equities have priced in 2.5-3% rates, further downside would be a severe growth slowdown. But in bonds it looks like we're seeing a peak in yields.
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