MDLZ - Breakdown trade from $40.37 to $32 area

8 Des 2016

MDLZ seems forming a declining neck head & shoulder formation. It is also running within a channel formation. Technically it looks weak & it had recent insider selling. We think it will decline to 32 area shortly.

Trade Criteria
Entry Target Criteria- break of $40.37
Exit Target Criteria- Target 1- $36.43; Target 2- $32.23
Stop Loss Criteria- $42.23
Indicator Notes- Negative Twiggs Moneyflow
Option- $42 Feb-17 Puts

You can check our detailed analysis on MDLZ in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
youtube.com/watch?v=tp4Sj_I-p5U
Time Span- 3:00"
Trade Status: Pending

25 Jan 2017

Catatan

Entry Target Criteria- Retest of resistance at $44.70 or break below $43.50 (updated Jan 10, 2017)
Exit Target Criteria- Target 1- $36.43; Target 2- $32.23
Stop Loss Criteria- $45.81 (Updated January 11, 2017)
Indicator Notes- Negative Twiggs Money flow
Special Note- Recent insider selling, $42 Feb-17 Puts @ $0.84
Next Earnings Release Date- February 1, 2017 ( Estimated)

Relevant Updates:
January 20th- Seems forming an upward channel here, and holding well below stoploss. Moneyflow is still in the negative side. We would like to watch few more days.
January 13th- Showing some weakness, wait & see situation
January 11th- Went up & hit entry at $44.70 resistance, updating stoploss to $45.81. Now wait & see
January 10th- as a more speculative trade we would consider now in order to capture the possible crash, a retest of resistance at $44.70 or a break below $43.50 would be our updated idea. Twiggs Money Flow has dropped sharply.

December 23rd- still holding above its EMA support and has yet to hit our entry zone criteria
December 19th- still holding above its MA support and has yet to hit our entry zone criteria

13 Feb 2017

Catatan

February 10th- Went up & traded above EMA lines, but holding below resistance label.
February 8th- It was a strange day for MDLZ, started lower making a lower low but spiked very high and closed at the middle of the range. Not looking very good as short.
February 7th- Reported Earnings that missed estimate narrowly. In reaction Share price is little up in aftermarket trading.
February 6th- Declined testing the support, looking good as short. Earnings tomorrow after market.
February 3rd- Retesting the broken down support around $44.50. We would consider closing the position if it close above this label.
February 1st- Broken down the consolidation & tested MA 50 & 200, a close below the MA lines will confirm further decline.
January 31st- Made a lower low, though closed at the middle of the range. Looking good as short.
January 27th- Nice decline but still above consolidation resistance. Waiting for a breakdown below Ma lines at $43.65 area.
January 25th- Still trading within the consolidation zone, waiting for a breakdown.

16 Mar 2017

Catatan

March 2nd - Showing weakness after adjusting to EMA lines, and moneyflow crossed down to negative. Looking good.

March 15th - Strong upward move, but moneyflow did not react to that and still in the negative side. So good chances for it to decline.