McDonald's Earnings Miss For the First Time Since 2020

29 Jul

McDonald's second-quarter earnings report fell short of analysts' expectations as higher prices contributed to a decline in foot traffic and comparable store sales. Despite efforts to boost sales with promotions like the "$5 Meal Deal," the fast food giant faced challenges in maintaining revenue and profitability.

Key Takeaways:
- Revenue and Profits: McDonald's reported $6.49 billion in total revenue for Q2, nearly identical to the same period in 2023, but fell short of the $6.63 billion projected by analysts. Net income dropped 12% year-over-year to $2.02 billion, missing expectations of $2.24 billion.

- Comparable Sales Decline: Global comparable sales fell 1% from last year, with U.S. locations experiencing a drop in foot traffic due to higher prices. Sales decreases in France and China offset improvements in Japan and Latin America.

- Impact of Promotions: The recent "$5 Meal Deal" promotion provided a late-quarter boost, though its full impact will be more evident in the third quarter.

Detailed Analysis:
Revenue and Profit Performance
In the second quarter of 2024, McDonald's revenue remained flat at $6.49 billion compared to the same period in 2023. Analysts had anticipated a growth in revenue to $6.63 billion, but the reality fell short. This stagnation in revenue was accompanied by a notable decline in net income, which dropped 12% year-over-year to $2.02 billion, compared to analysts' expectations of $2.24 billion.

Comparable Sales and Foot Traffic
The global comparable sales decline of 1% highlighted the challenges McDonald's faced in maintaining customer engagement amid rising prices. In the U.S., higher menu prices led to reduced foot traffic, contributing to a 0.7% decline in same-store sales. Internationally, sales fell by 1.1%, driven by weaknesses in markets like France and China, which overshadowed gains in Japan and Latin America.

Promotional Efforts and Market Response
In response to the declining sales, McDonald's launched the "$5 Meal Deal" promotion in an effort to attract price-sensitive customers. While this promotion only impacted the final days of the second quarter, it is expected to have a more significant effect on third-quarter earnings. Early reports suggest that the promotion has been successful, potentially continuing into August to sustain momentum.

McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski emphasized the company's commitment to delivering "reliable, everyday value" and accelerating growth drivers such as chicken and loyalty programs. Despite these efforts, the broader economic environment and consumer price sensitivity have posed substantial challenges.

Market Reaction
Shares of McDonald's have experienced a 15% decline in value so far this year. However, the stock showed a slight recovery, up 3.77% in Monday's trading session following the earnings announcement. This reflects a cautious optimism among investors that the company's strategic initiatives may eventually pay off. The stock has a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 57.83, indicating potential for further growth. Adding to the potential growth is the bullish flag pattern depicted on the chart.

Conclusion
McDonald's second-quarter performance underscores the difficulties faced by the fast food industry amid rising prices and shifting consumer behaviors. While the "$5 Meal Deal" and other strategic initiatives show promise, the company must navigate a complex landscape to regain growth and profitability.