MMK: Stock price will repeat the 2nd quarter

29 Sep 2021

Against the backdrop of strong fin. indicators of the 3rd quarter
Key factors and catalysts

• Annual forward dividend approximate to 40% in H2 2021
  
• Should significantly increase production up to 30%
  
• Cost less than competitors in one sector on P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples
  
• Beneficiary of commodity supercycle 2021
  
• Most likely going to be included in the MSCI Russia index
  
• The desire of the main shareholder to increase free-float by 2%, which gives an increase in FIF by 0.5 and weight in the MSCI index
  
• Main beneficiary from the transition from duties to MET tax from the beginning of 2022
  
• Main beneficiary from the decline in world prices for iron ore and high prices for hot-rolled steel
  
• Negative debt load
  
• Making every effort to be ESG friendly
  
• An unprecedented openness and disclosure of information to investors
  
• It is a super clear and transparent business with a double-digit dividend history
  

We calculate financial indicators for the 3rd quarter of 2021

• Revenue - $ 3302.6 million to increase by 1.5% q / q (3370 * 980)
  
• EBITDA - $ 1,380.7 million decrease by 3.8% q/q including the effect of duties $ 60 million (3,370 * 427.5-60000)
  
• Profit - $ 1017 million (1380.7-125) * (1-0.19)
  
• Total NWC - a decrease by $ 259 million due to a significant decrease in world prices for iron ore and a decrease in prices for finished products due to the introduction of temporary duties on inventories (1425 * (0.4 * 0.33 + 0.20 * 0.25))
  
• FCF - $ 1,045 million, an increase of 92% q/q (EBITDA-Change in PSC-CAPEX-Taxes = 1380.7 + 259-350-245)
  
• Dividend - $0.11. an increase of 222% taking into account compensation over a cappex ((1045 + 350-175) / 11174.33) or 9.4% in quarter