LYFT - Buy the Dip, Ride the Lift
Diupdate
According to the Internet, Lyft is down some 30% post-market following an earnings call that says the company slightly beat revenue and active rider targets, but reduced guidance for Q1 '23 by roughly 10%.
Q1 spending and travel being down under the conditions of a) post-Christmas and b) in an economy where credit card debt and credit card rates are climbing high count as a surprise to absolutely nobody.
This kind of situation immediately piques my interest. It piques it because the move smells of big money manipulation, the #1 sign that something is about to reverse and a big move is pending.
But the news only caught my interest because a Twitter friend had DM'd me about a trendline astrology breakout on Lyft last month, otherwise I had never looked at it, and so I have had it in the back of my head all this time that a pullback to the trendline would actually be worth looking at buying.
Now that I've actually looked at Lyft, I like what I see.
There's a smaller precedential fractal on Silver futures that illustrates the kind of play I've been looking to see manifest.
Trendline breakout --> retest --> more up is a very common pattern that MMs like to play.
China Watch
The markets are shaky right now, as is the rest of the world. The reason is, the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic situation in mainland China is countless times worse than the media and Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party are telling the world. The regime still claims that under 100,000 people have died from COVID over the last three years.
Just go take a look at how many people have died from COVID in countries with 5-30% less population, countries that aren't the origin of the pandemic, and ask yourself if there's even a 0.001% chance that the CCP isn't just lying and covering up the situation because the Party is _highly_ unstable right now.
If you still don't believe it, then remember the Party covered up the 2003 SARS epidemic too. A lot of people died, but the communist regime has always claimed only a few thousand died.
It's almost like an evil communist dictatorship has to lie a lot to keep its political power in tact, or something.
It's almost like evil communism doesn't lift anyone out of poverty and isn't saving any lives, or something.
What a revelation.
Regardless, the CCP will fall in our lifetimes, much like the USSR fell on Boxing Day '91. When the Party goes, a lot of things are going to go with it, because China is a much bigger deal than Russia. This is humanity's oldest country, self described as the ("Middle Kingdom"), and the only country to have roots to a 5,000 year old traditional, divine culture.
It's also the only country where its government has gone so far as to commit the unprecedented crime of live organ harvesting during the persecution of Falun Gong and Uyghur Muslims, and is composed of the most wicked and shameless rogues, and is the most heinous mafia, in all of human history.
When the Party falls, a lot of governments are going to try to take China. And on top of that, what comes out of China as, and after, the Party falls, will implicate many of the same governments and the corporations they formed these "public-private partnerships" with.
A lot of individuals will also be implicated. The Sam Bankman-Fried scandal will seem rather insignificant (although you'll also see what was really behind that).
All of this combines to mean that any bull market can be sharply and immediately truncated by both geopolitical and natural disaster risks. You have to bear this in mind and take profits on the way up if you're lucky enough to get a winning position!
The trade
On the monthly bars, LYFT isn't really amazing at first glance. I, mean, it could go to $0 right? Everyone knows everything is going to zero because FEDERAL RESERVE and because RECESSION and because ECONOMY.
This is the problem with the bear narrative right now. Instead, you should be looking for bull impulses inside of the prevailingly bearish fundamentals.
But then I looked at the weekly and I saw what needed to be seen.
Namely, the last 6-8 months of trading have been a play on the '20 low of $14.56.
More over, this earnings dump was arranged with a failure to break the $18.58 September '22 high, which has created a double top
To me, this, combined with the fact that tech should really be the next thing to pump in anticipation of a July --> December genuine bearpocalypse, leads me to believe Lyft actually bottomed in December.
All and all, the play is simple:
1. Buy under $12
1. a) Don't get scared
2. Don't want to see a new low set
3. Targets are the $18.58 double top, May '22 $22.82 gap candle, and the $30 gap fill.
What's not to like on the risk/reward in this trade for a company that isn't about to head towards bankruptcy?
Moreover, it's not like we're about to see another round of pandemic lockdowns in the next three months, so travel demand ought be hot going into the summer.
Moreover, I joked in my Intel short-long-short call from last week that the most profitable trade in the US equity markets has to be buying the dip after an earnings dump and waiting for the gap fill/gamma squeeze to play out lol.
Intel Corporation - Buy the Raid, Ride the Wave
Good luck, stay safe, and choose a future for yourselves by opposing the CCP and all of its Marxist-Leninist garbage.
Q1 spending and travel being down under the conditions of a) post-Christmas and b) in an economy where credit card debt and credit card rates are climbing high count as a surprise to absolutely nobody.
This kind of situation immediately piques my interest. It piques it because the move smells of big money manipulation, the #1 sign that something is about to reverse and a big move is pending.
But the news only caught my interest because a Twitter friend had DM'd me about a trendline astrology breakout on Lyft last month, otherwise I had never looked at it, and so I have had it in the back of my head all this time that a pullback to the trendline would actually be worth looking at buying.
Now that I've actually looked at Lyft, I like what I see.
There's a smaller precedential fractal on Silver futures that illustrates the kind of play I've been looking to see manifest.
Trendline breakout --> retest --> more up is a very common pattern that MMs like to play.
China Watch
The markets are shaky right now, as is the rest of the world. The reason is, the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic situation in mainland China is countless times worse than the media and Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party are telling the world. The regime still claims that under 100,000 people have died from COVID over the last three years.
Just go take a look at how many people have died from COVID in countries with 5-30% less population, countries that aren't the origin of the pandemic, and ask yourself if there's even a 0.001% chance that the CCP isn't just lying and covering up the situation because the Party is _highly_ unstable right now.
If you still don't believe it, then remember the Party covered up the 2003 SARS epidemic too. A lot of people died, but the communist regime has always claimed only a few thousand died.
It's almost like an evil communist dictatorship has to lie a lot to keep its political power in tact, or something.
It's almost like evil communism doesn't lift anyone out of poverty and isn't saving any lives, or something.
What a revelation.
Regardless, the CCP will fall in our lifetimes, much like the USSR fell on Boxing Day '91. When the Party goes, a lot of things are going to go with it, because China is a much bigger deal than Russia. This is humanity's oldest country, self described as the ("Middle Kingdom"), and the only country to have roots to a 5,000 year old traditional, divine culture.
It's also the only country where its government has gone so far as to commit the unprecedented crime of live organ harvesting during the persecution of Falun Gong and Uyghur Muslims, and is composed of the most wicked and shameless rogues, and is the most heinous mafia, in all of human history.
When the Party falls, a lot of governments are going to try to take China. And on top of that, what comes out of China as, and after, the Party falls, will implicate many of the same governments and the corporations they formed these "public-private partnerships" with.
A lot of individuals will also be implicated. The Sam Bankman-Fried scandal will seem rather insignificant (although you'll also see what was really behind that).
All of this combines to mean that any bull market can be sharply and immediately truncated by both geopolitical and natural disaster risks. You have to bear this in mind and take profits on the way up if you're lucky enough to get a winning position!
The trade
On the monthly bars, LYFT isn't really amazing at first glance. I, mean, it could go to $0 right? Everyone knows everything is going to zero because FEDERAL RESERVE and because RECESSION and because ECONOMY.
This is the problem with the bear narrative right now. Instead, you should be looking for bull impulses inside of the prevailingly bearish fundamentals.
But then I looked at the weekly and I saw what needed to be seen.
Namely, the last 6-8 months of trading have been a play on the '20 low of $14.56.
More over, this earnings dump was arranged with a failure to break the $18.58 September '22 high, which has created a double top
To me, this, combined with the fact that tech should really be the next thing to pump in anticipation of a July --> December genuine bearpocalypse, leads me to believe Lyft actually bottomed in December.
All and all, the play is simple:
1. Buy under $12
1. a) Don't get scared
2. Don't want to see a new low set
3. Targets are the $18.58 double top, May '22 $22.82 gap candle, and the $30 gap fill.
What's not to like on the risk/reward in this trade for a company that isn't about to head towards bankruptcy?
Moreover, it's not like we're about to see another round of pandemic lockdowns in the next three months, so travel demand ought be hot going into the summer.
Moreover, I joked in my Intel short-long-short call from last week that the most profitable trade in the US equity markets has to be buying the dip after an earnings dump and waiting for the gap fill/gamma squeeze to play out lol.
Intel Corporation - Buy the Raid, Ride the Wave
Good luck, stay safe, and choose a future for yourselves by opposing the CCP and all of its Marxist-Leninist garbage.
Catatan
Right now, with the way Lyft dumped, went flat, and hasn't retested the gap while remaining under the trendline makes me believe that if there really is a bullish scenario, it'll be from a turtle soup/diamond bottom under the lows.Look for the $9.25 range. CPI comes in on Tuesday.
Catatan
This is a really annoying pattern to try to trade. 5 minute bars since the dump, hasn't broken $10, hasn't wanted to bounce, filled the micro gap at $10.10~ and gone back over the trendline.What to do? I think the bullish thesis is a run to new lows. There's just risk that waiting means it goes up with the Nasdaq and that sounds pretty fun.
Catatan
The "risk that waiting means it goes up with the Nasdaq and that sounds pretty fun" seems to have unfolded rather well.Although I have reservations that the bottom is in without 9.xx being taped. But what are reservations really worth?
Catatan
Markets at large look pretty bad, and Lyft trades back under its gap high.I like to think that it was correct to wait to get long. If so, 9s are coming.
Catatan
I feel with this price action that Lyft really is going to run the lows.The previous action into the gap was probably a 17% MM scalp/MM sell model.
Catatan
Looks like it really was too early to buy Lyft. This faux double bottom stuff at $10 won't hold.Catatan
Lyft looks crazy weak.It really should have reversed here after raiding the $10 psy-figure if it was to be considered a bottom.
Look for bottom patterns on Nasdaq futures for potential timing signals.
Catatan
LYFT raids the bottom and bounces off the memeline...Buy red, sell green. It can often be unpleasant for a while though.
Catatan
This still seems unbuyable. Look for LYFT under 9. Jerome Powell testifies before Congress for two days starting tomorrow.Catatan
Lyft is showing signs that it may have bottomed after running the low's trendlineFade the bear hype. Seriously.
Catatan
With LYFT's price action there's two options:1. Is this five days of uppy is some order blocking for a new leg under $7
2. Time for genuine reversal
My call is actually #1 with FOMC tomorrow, the Nasdaq not having traded low enough, and oil/natural gas looking like they're about to go off, which will bolster the SPX.
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