LTCUSD: Hedging our buys with wave counts
Diupdate
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, and I have never received training sufficient to give financial advice. For me, this is a hobby. This is my third published idea.
Foreword
I am currently Long with approx 350 LTC at a dollar-cost-average of $58 per coin. I've linked below my breakdown analysis of the LTCUSD and BTCUSD cycles. This wave count analysis corroborates that breakdown analysis. The degree of waves for the counts in this analysis might be incorrect. My intent is to convey that we've reached sub-waves 1 and 2 of a larger wave 1. Sub-wave 3 is impending. Comments welcomed.
Analysis
Sub-wave 1 price reached $65.8 from $47.2 with a length of 18 (approximations). Sub-wave 2 reached $56.4 with a length of 9 and .5 retracement (approximation). Sub-wave 3 will target from $74 to $103.
If price drops below $56.4 but it remains higher than $50, then consider that price to be sub-wave 2. Analysis becomes invalid if price drops below $50, exceeding an 81% retracement.
Foreword
I am currently Long with approx 350 LTC at a dollar-cost-average of $58 per coin. I've linked below my breakdown analysis of the LTCUSD and BTCUSD cycles. This wave count analysis corroborates that breakdown analysis. The degree of waves for the counts in this analysis might be incorrect. My intent is to convey that we've reached sub-waves 1 and 2 of a larger wave 1. Sub-wave 3 is impending. Comments welcomed.
Analysis
Sub-wave 1 price reached $65.8 from $47.2 with a length of 18 (approximations). Sub-wave 2 reached $56.4 with a length of 9 and .5 retracement (approximation). Sub-wave 3 will target from $74 to $103.
If price drops below $56.4 but it remains higher than $50, then consider that price to be sub-wave 2. Analysis becomes invalid if price drops below $50, exceeding an 81% retracement.
Catatan
Price dropped below $56.4 to ~$54 making it the new candidate wave 2 peak. Will monitor as price fluctuates. Current analysis still applies with a very slim error margin. I bought an additional 52.34 LTC at $56.4. Again, analysis invalid if price drops below $50. However, my stop loss is $43.Catatan
Based on recent lows and weekly, price is/was targeting $50.7 for .81 sub-wave 2 retracement. Thus far, SW2 has reached $50.9, which might qualify as bottom. This changes our previous analysis as it was based on .5 retracement. I will post a visual later but the technicals follow.Likely scenario
- Price remains above $50.9
- SW1: $65.8 (from $47.2) with 18.6 length
- SW2: $50.9, 14.9 length, .8 SW1
— SWa: $56.4 and 9.4 length
— SWb: $60.3, 3.9 length, .41 SWa
— SWc: $50.9, 9.4 length, 1 SWa
- SW3 TP: $68
- If bottom lower than $47.2, likely that new cycle has yet to begin. Possible Wave C peak.
- If ~$50.7 reached, .81 retracement, then W2 peak
Catatan
Previous update was posted prematurely. It would be fantastic to edit and delete Idea updates, and any guidance on doing so will be appreciated. Please disregard the above points starting at SW3. The rest of the update and a snapshot follow.- SW3 TP: $69 - $81, possible TP for (i) of SW3 is $62
- Scenario likely because typical Elliott wave multipliers and ratios were achieved. Analysis remains valid even if price drops to $50.7.
Less likely scenario
- Price drops between $47.2 - $50.7
- Potential that we've reached W1 and W2 peaks instead of Sub-wave peaks
- Would indicate much lower target prices are possible
- Will update when applicable
Unlikely scenario
- Price drops below $47.2
- Indicates we likely have NOT started a new cycle
- Potential bottom for start of new cycle
- Will update when applicable
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