When to Enter JUP? What's the Potential Final Price?

21 Mar

JUPUSDT
I believe that valuing cryptocurrencies is almost the simplest among all investment products. In fact, to value a newer coin, one only needs to compare it to the maximum market cap of a similar, older (more mature) coin after the last bull market surge.

To value JUP, we need to understand its positioning. JUP is the top liquidity aggregator on the Solana blockchain, a star project, integrating the liquidity of all decentralized exchanges on the Solana chain. For instance, the recent surge in MEME coins like RAY, as well as ORCA, means that any Solana-based decentralized exchange can be aggregated into JUP for trading. JUP searches these exchanges for the best prices (similar to how Pinduoduo finds the lowest prices across the web) to provide traders with the most convenient and affordable trades. My first BOME trade was completed on JUP, and the experience was fantastic.

Theoretically, as long as there are hotspots on the Solana chain, JUP can benefit. For example, if you bought JUP at 0.6 in this round of the MEME coin craze, the peak was nearly three times higher. If you're bullish on SOL in this bull market, then you needn't worry about JUP's gains; the future looks bright. Understanding this underlying logic, I believe holding JUP long-term should be worry-free, without fear of selling too early. Holding is the best strategy.

Having understood JUP's positioning, what can JUP be compared to? Any new coin can essentially find a counterpart on the ETH chain, given ETH's mature ecosystem. The top liquidity aggregator on ETH is UNI.

So, let's start calculating:

The peak price of UNI in the last round was $45, with a circulating supply assumed to be half of the total, i.e., 1e+9*0.5=5e+8, resulting in a market cap of 5e+8*45=2.25e+10, or 225 billion.

What's UNI's current market cap? Before the full onset of the bull market, it's 88.8 billion.

Given the current scenario, a quick Google search or any platform will tell you that Solana's chain transaction volume has surpassed ETH's as of December 2023. What does this indicate? JUP's potential is much greater than UNI's.

JUP's current market cap is 17.97 billion. Assuming two airdrops during the bull market, the maximum circulating supply could reach 3e+9, resulting in a market cap of 3e+9*1.3=3.9e+9, or 39 billion.

At this point, we can complete our valuation:

Minimum (almost certainly higher than this): If JUP reaches UNI's pre-bull market cap of 88.8 billion, JUP's increase would be 225%, from 1.3, meaning JUP could rise to at least $3.

Most likely: JUP approaches UNI's last peak market cap of 225 billion, a 577% increase, potentially rising to $7.5.

Even: Given JUP's foundation on the SOL chain and its role as a DEX, with SOL's transaction volume clearly surpassing ETH's, we have strong reasons to believe JUP could exceed UNI. Thus, $7.5 is just the most likely figure, with potential for even higher growth.

Summary:
JUP's price in this bull market could minimally hit $3, most likely reach $7.5, with no upper limit. Even buying at $1.3 now promises at least a double return, and that's a conservative estimate. More likely, returns could quintuple or more, especially for those who followed my advice and bought in at $0.6, potentially seeing tenfold gains.

So, when to invest in JUP? As a value investor, I can't provide a precise entry point, nor predict whether the price will rise or fall from here. I can only share where I see JUP peaking this bull market. As for where to buy, even at $1.3 now is a definite value, but whether it's the lowest point, I truly don't know; that's up to your own judgment.

The importance of being ahead in predictions cannot be overstated. If you bought at $0.6, there's no worry about whether it's rising or falling; just hold until the peak of the bull market.

I've noticed that my perspectives are often overlooked when I first share them, only to gain attention once they prove accurate, even though the buying opportunities might not be as good by then.

Friends, to make money, you must think independently and not follow the crowd.

Let's progress together, cheers 🍻