JPYBasket Moving Downwards; Risk Sentiment Tending Towards On

19 Feb 2020

The JPY is regarded as a safe haven and tends to be sold down when there is less uncertainty in the market. This being the case it is interesting to note that FXCM's JPY index - the JPYBasket - is showing signs of weakness i.e. its green 5-day EMA has crossed below its orange 10-day EMA. Moreover, the latest candlestick shows a long range red candlestick suggesting supply. If the EMAs show further angle and separation and the RSI dips below 50, it will be regarded as further weakness. This type of movement would seem to indicate that the market is overcoming the Apple announcement regarding missing its Q1 revenue numbers as per guidance, and that the market sees the coronavirus as plateauing. If these trajectories hold, then market sentiment will be regarded as tending towards risk-on, which typically sees a rotation of capital from havens into risk assets.