IWM still projects lower after one more retrace

7 Jan 2014

One of the tenets of EWT (Elliott Wave Theory) is that 5-wave moves define the trend, while 3-wave moves define the counter trend. While the higher degree trend has not yet officially turned (because we don't yet have 5 waves down on hourly or higher time frames), what I am seeing is a consistent trend of 5 waves on the downside, and 3 wave retracements. Today's range-bound price action contained another 5 wave move down. What may look like chop to anyone casually looking at this time frame or higher time frames, to a waver shows a coiling spring ready to move. See this 15min chart, tradingview.com/x/rkJAcBlj/, for a zoomed in look at today's price action.
In the above chart, price has found support in the hourly cloud. A bounce from here was not unexpected, the major question was and is whether it will be able to break through to the downside. Today's price action makes me pretty bold in my belief that new lows are coming. Yesterday's intraday high of 115.27 will serve as the level that breaks all downside conviction, otherwise a move to 114.67, representing the ichi baseline on hourly, will serve as the high probability retrace area, and the level from which I will look for a short entry to ride the next move lower.