IT10y-US10y yield spread looking to another leg higher

22 Jul 2018

Very pretty triangle forming in potential B wave suggests attempts for another leg higher in coming weeks to break up to +50bps+
Need confirmation first (staying above tri support) then breakout.

2 Agu 2018

Trade aktif

On the move. Should be dynamic. IT yields headed a lot higher and will drag spread along for the ride. Risk off environment.

10 Agu 2018

Trade aktif

Stick with the plan. Recommended trade at negative 35bps, now spread flat(ish) and still looks to be headed a lot higher (plus 30-50bps) as we could be entering risk off mode and flight to UST (quite apart from impact on EZ bonds from Turkey fallout).

17 Agu 2018

Trade aktif

Spread now +30bps (having widened from -35bps when recommended initially). Still think there is more room on upside to +50bps or higher in risk off environment.

30 Agu 2018

Trade aktif

Spread now +35bps and still has a lot more upside imo (maybe another 100bps to 135bps!!