INDUSINDBK Short?

2 Agu

Disclaimer: This discussion is meant to be educational in nature and not a recommendation as I'm not a certified analyst.
Why do I look at things beyond just the technicals? Because the market is smarter than just technicals. We must try to understand GOM moves (God of the Market) :)

Fundas & News: (a) Nifty50 and BankNifty stock (meaning money flow into the stock is difficult to predict). (b) Recent major brokerages targets range from 1580 - 1750 (a Capital IQ poll puts the target range at 1400 - 2010). But the important point to note is that most brokerages have revised their targets Downward after not-so-great Q1 results. (c) Promoters hold 16.38% shares (actually have been reducing from 16.51% since 2022) and have pledged 45.48% of holding. Other insiders are revoking their pledges and selling. Retailers and FIIs have sold off about 10% shares since 2022 (which DIIs have bought) means reduced confidence in this bank. (d) Global cues are visibly negative.

Technicals: H&S weekly pattern broke out above the neckline and achieved 440 pts target on 15 Jan 2024 at 1695 or nearly 1700. After that the moves were contained in a box in a range of 1420 - 1575. Since then the stock has managed to stay above 1360, and not broken weekly 100SMA at about 1340. But the 2nd chart shows 21VWMA (1478) crossing below 50SMA weekly (1486). Lastly, highest Calls are at 1500 (resistance) and highest Puts are at 1400 (support).

My Conclusion: This is a SELL ON RISE stock until it breaks above 1500. CMP is 1405.
Aggressive shorts are building up in futures. (Lot size 500). Wait for a bounce up to around 1422 (or 1-2% up move).
Warning: This stock can be very volatile and has a tendency to move in big spurts.

Targets in cash below 1400 -> 1360. If 1340 broken -> 1300. SL 1430

13 Agu

Catatan

13Aug: Since this idea was published, the stock has moved within a range of 1330 to 1370. The action has been around the long term trendline (strong black line in the first chart above). Meanwhile ICICI Securities gave a Buy with a target of 1900. Regardless, 6 of the last 8 sessions have ended in the red. As I write this (2:30pm), Calls volume is much larger than Puts volume (bearish). The bull-bear tussle has moved to 1360.

Highest Puts are at 1360, 1300, 1400, 1340.
Highest Calls are at 1360, 1400, 1380, 1420

The global cues are quite negative. SELL ON RISE outlook has yielded good results. The Short SL can be moved to 1400, with an alert at 1380. The stock has given multiple trading opportunities. Hope you made money with this idea.

4 Sep

Trading ditutup secara manual

Although I'm closing this discussion as the stock has successfully broken thru SL but this story is not over. Brokerages have called Buys with big upsides but I don't see corresponding fundas catching up just yet. After hitting 1450 levels two days in a row once inside the box shown above, it suddenly dropped to the box bottom. This tussle will be officially over once it gets over 1500 (1480 is a big hurdle) imho.