Goldman Sachs (GS): Ready for a Big Correction?

4 Nov

As we projected four months ago, Goldman Sachs (GS) has reached our anticipated upside range between $516 and $575, touching $540 specifically. We've reinforced our analysis with a trend line dating back to 2016, which has been tested and validated three times. Combining this trend line, the Elliott wave count, and key Fibonacci levels, our outlook now points towards a significant pullback from current levels. Given that we're likely dealing with a larger Elliott wave cycle, we anticipate a substantial correction of around 28%.

While a 28% decline sounds extreme, it's not unprecedented for GS. The drop from the top of wave 3 to the bottom of wave 4 was 35%, and the decline from wave (1) to (2) was almost 50%. Even smaller corrections within these larger waves illustrate that major pullbacks are essential for long-term growth, especially as institutional investors take profits. With Goldman Sachs having gained 87% year-to-date—a remarkable rise in this sector—a correction is likely as big players start locking in their gains.

We aren't sure yet how this correction will unfold, but we anticipate a sharper, quicker drop compared to the more prolonged wave (2) correction. A potential support level for wave A could be around $420. Meanwhile, wave C and the overarching wave (4) are expected to land between $366 and $264.

We are not setting a limit order at the moment but have alerts in place for both scenarios: whether we call the exact top here or see GS push higher before pulling back. Either way, we'll be ready and will update you as the situation evolves.