#1,727.80 is next / mid-late August projection

Gold's general commentary: The Short-term Price-action is Neutral at it’s best as E.U. opening delivered flat movements with Bearish gradient, exactly what I have been expecting. I can spot idle movements on Hourly 4 chart with #1,792.80 clear Support, Gold eventually stopped the uptrend, and it is worth noting that both correlating assets are working favorably to Selling outlook, DX is within Neutral Rectangle (able to test the Resistance once again which can add Selling pressure on Gold) while Bond Yields found the Support and engaged the Hourly 4 chart mild recovery. Visible though on the Hourly 4 chart, all indicators showing Bearish values (Technically Gold’s fair Price would be around #1,778.80 by now) and can spot that Gold should break the Rectangle with clear Higher Low’s and Lower High’s, as it is much needed to wait for turn / outcome on Bond Yields and DX to it’s lesser extent. See how the very same divergence has Traded since October #7. On November #6 almost near the Higher High, Price-action started rising on the Channel Up, but once the it broken the Resistance, dipped again and almost formed a new Lower Low, when Fundamentals left the main stage / which is main evidence that these are not usual Trading sessions as Gold is Trading on huge Swings (new norm), as I can’t rule out repetition of mentioned variance. Then again after mentioned Low, Gold started rising until the next Bull Divergence (which means, after #1,816.80 and #1,835 in extension (if occurs), both ways I expect parabolic decline towards #1,752.80 test/Medium-term, and #1,727.80 in succession). But since Support is broken on multiple occasions, if #1,792.80 gets invalidated, I may see quiet a Bearish session on Monday. All this Price-action offers an distinguished Selling opportunity for me, but without needed confirmation from correlating assets, I'll most likely wait for Monday's session and make my move. If I had to take a Short-term guess regarding what is going to happen throughout today’s session, I would note an idle movements until Wall Street opening Bell and gradual #1,778.80 test early next week. However, if #1,808.80 Resistance breaks, it should point to #1,816.80 extension. It is worth noting that there is emerging Golden Cross on Hourly 4 chart, and last #4 out of #5 times Gold didn’t respected it, means that it could had less or no impact on Gold's sentiment. It is yet to understand which side will prevail / clash of Technical and Fundamental. I have no other alternative than continue Trading with extreme caution. No positions for the moment.


Technical analysis: Gold driven by random factors is current interesting correlation: DX is taking strong hits from early yesterday's U.S. session opening Bell, but lagging upswing sequence on Gold yet again proves that Gold lost all logical correlations for #16 sessions in a row is distorting Technical trends and is more an Volatility than a rational asset to Trade on. However, this state won’t last for long of course and the market will continue to be guided by fair Technical proper trend. Despite the aggressive Selling sequence on DX, the Daily chart candle managed to stay almost flat (# +0.08%) and today's candle is idle to a big extent and does not look promising for Buyers. Attention is needed as despite the rise on U.S. equities and DX being down (# -0.17%) Gold is on a disproportional candle. Assuming that the DX still didn’t found it’s Short-term Support and this week’s forecasts missing their estimate, Gold spot should at least be below #1,800.80 psychological barrier. It all comes down of course to Fundamental configuration, representing clash between Technical necessity for an Selling extension and Fundamental Buying pressure (Buying every dip) since June #29. A weaker than expected number on Fundamental readings can easily bring DX back to #93.10 and Gold (spot) back to #1,778.80. My estimations are pointing on an Buying rally on DX and strong recovery on Bond Yields, which can result as an #75 point decline on Gold. I will update if Price-action does something different.


Fundamental analysis: Gold made a decent rebound just above the Weekly chart (#1W) #1,792.80 Support and quite possibly has began the new multi-Month Bearish leg. However as long as the Daily chart is Neutral, I should continue considering this as (at least) the multi-Week variance towards the Lower Low trendlines. Price-action Bought back the recent slide and is comfortably Trading near #1,808.80 semi-Resistance / if broken, would not still provide me steady pattern which I am looking for. #1,825.80 - #1,835.80 is seen as an strong Medium-term Resistance zone, and if broken / I will pursue #1,865.80 configuration with my Buying orders, which is representing Lower Higher High zone. First significant Support is priced at #1,789.80, and if broken could deliver #1,778.80 Higher Low zone, and break of it can extend the decline even below the Weekly chart’s final Support zone (most likely towards #1,764.80, November #2020 Low). If the market closed beneath #1,800.80, would be an messenger for Selling fractal on the aftermath, but Gold Spot is way above it. If the Support breaks (#1,789.80) on the other side, then I can continue Selling towards #1,778.80. Bond Yields found the Support and are on a mini recovery, keep that in mind. If variance allows, I will Sell early on E.U. session on Monday towards #1,778.80.