Weekly Technical Analysis for Major Currency Pairs, Commodities,

28 Okt

Welcome, dear brothers, to a new weekly analysis of the most important currency pairs, commodities, and indices. In this episode, we will provide comprehensive analysis for the current week, focusing on the expected economic data and the potential scenarios for gold, oil, and the U.S. dollar. Stay with us until the end to gain a complete overview and trading strategy for the week ahead.

Economic and Geopolitical Analysis

We begin by analyzing the economic and geopolitical data for this week, which is expected to be full of events that will significantly impact the U.S. dollar and gold. The key data for the week includes:

• Monday, October 28: Speech by Bank of Canada Governor Macklem.
• Tuesday, October 29: Key U.S. data such as the Consumer Confidence Index and the Job Openings report.
• Wednesday, October 30: The U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report, which serves as a precursor to the major U.S. data releases on Friday.
• Thursday, October 31: The interest rate decision for the Japanese yen, the U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, and U.S. Unemployment Claims.
• Friday, November 1: The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, the Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings, as well as the ISM Manufacturing PMI.

All of this data will be crucial in determining the market direction for the week.

Technical Analysis of Currency Pairs, Commodities, and Indices

First: Analysis of Currency Pairs

• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY):
The index continues to trade in an upward channel, supported by the price holding above the 55-day moving average. As long as prices remain above 104, the positive scenario targeting 105.400 and 107 remains intact. This scenario will only be invalidated if prices fall below 104.
• EUR/USD:
The pair is under pressure as the U.S. dollar index rebounds. If prices manage to break below 1.0800, we may see further downside toward 1.0700 and 1.0600.
• GBP/USD:
As long as prices remain below 1.3015, the bearish scenario continues. The pair may target 1.2950 and 1.2900 if this level is clearly broken.
• USD/JPY:
The pair remains in an upward scenario. If prices manage to break through the 153 yen level, we may see an advance toward 158 and 164 yen per U.S. dollar.
• USD/CHF:
The pair is trading in the green zone. Continued trading above 0.8700 supports the positive scenario targeting 0.8800 and 0.8830.
• AUD/USD:
The pair is under pressure, with prices remaining below 0.6075. Continuation of this scenario may lead to targeting 0.5980 and 0.5900.
• NZD/USD:
As long as prices remain below 0.6000, the pair may resume its decline toward 0.5900 and 0.5800.
• USD/CAD:
The pair is trading in a positive scenario, with prices holding above 1.3060, increasing the likelihood of a rise to 1.4010 and 1.4050.
• GBP/JPY:
Known as the “Beast,” this pair may extend its gains if prices stabilize above 196 yen, targeting 200 and 205 yen.
• EUR/JPY:
The pair is holding above 164 yen. This stability supports the bullish scenario toward 167.60 and 170 yen.
• EUR/GBP:
The pair is approaching a key support level at 0.8300. A break of this support may lead to further downside toward 0.8250 and 0.8200.
• USD/TRY:
The pair is trading steadily above 34 Turkish lira per U.S. dollar, supporting the positive scenario toward 34.50 and 35 lira.

Second: Analysis of Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin (BTC/USD):
Bitcoin continues to maintain its positive momentum, with prices holding above 65,000 USD. Continuation above this level may lead Bitcoin to target 72,000 USD and 78,000 USD. This scenario will be invalidated if prices fall below 65,000 USD.
• Ethereum (ETH/USD):
Ethereum remains under pressure, with prices staying below 2,600 USD. If this pressure continues, we could see a decline toward 2,300 USD and 2,100 USD. Ethereum will not escape this bearish trend unless prices rise above 2,600 USD.
• Ripple (XRP/USD):
Ripple is still under pressure with prices remaining below 0.55 USD. If this bearish scenario continues, prices could fall toward 0.44 USD and 0.36 USD.

Third: Analysis of Commodities

• Gold (XAU/USD):
Gold continues to trade in a primary upward channel, with prices holding above 2,740 USD. If prices manage to break through the 2,760 USD level on the four-hour chart, we could see a rise toward 2,790 USD and 2,820 USD. Conversely, a break below 2,740 USD may lead to a correction toward 2,670 USD and 2,600 USD.
• Crude Oil (WTI):
Crude oil remains supported by geopolitical pressures. Holding above 69 USD supports the bullish scenario toward 74 USD, and a break above this level could target 80 USD and 86 USD per barrel.
• Silver (XAG/USD):
Silver continues to trade positively, holding above 32.50 USD. If prices manage to break through 34 USD, we may see further upside.
• Natural Gas (NG/USD):
Natural gas continues to trade positively, with a potential target of 3.00 USD if it breaks above 2.50 USD.

Fourth: Analysis of Indices

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI):
The index is attempting to break the upward trend. If prices remain below 42,500, this may lead to a corrective wave targeting 41,500 and 40,400.
• S&P 500 (S&P 500):
The index is retreating, and a break below 5,820 may lead to a decline toward 5,750 and 5,660.
• Nasdaq (NASDAQ):
Failing to break above 20,400 could lead to a corrective wave targeting 19,600.
• FTSE (FTSE):
The FTSE is approaching a key support level at 8,200. A break of this support could lead to a collapse in prices toward 8,050 and 7,900.
• DAX (DAX):
The DAX is losing its positive momentum. If it breaks 19,200, we may see a decline toward 18,000 and 17,800.
• CAC (CAC):
The index remains under pressure, with prices staying below 7,600. Continued pressure could lead to a decline toward 7,300.
• Nikkei (Nikkei 225):
The index remains under pressure, and a break below 37,600 could lead to a decline toward 36,000 and 34,400.
• Russell 2000 (Russell 2000):
The Russell index is trading under pressure, with prices staying below 2,225. Continued pressure may drive the index toward 2,150 and 2,007.

Conclusion

These were our key analyses of the economic, geopolitical, and technical factors that are expected to impact the markets this week.
This analysis was prepared by Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, a financial markets expert, based on current data and market trends. Please note that all strategies and analyses are subject to market changes, and it is advised to stay updated with economic developments to make informed decisions.