Junior Miners taking time off gonna plummet (10x insurance play)

13 Jun

It's gonna go down pretty badly. Follow my previous threads on gold, silver and miners. I'll go forward and update from this thread going forward.

September 20 puts for GDXJ are going for around .15 for 20, 25, and 30, the spread is pretty high between the bid and ask, but if you can scoop anything .20 and lower, then we're talking a 15x play for what I see.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH, I'M JUST A FOOL...
3 minutes ago
Comment:
These will go up exponentially even by the red line support, consider taking half off there and riding the rest down with a trailing stop of your own choice...

14 Jun

Catatan

How do I know gold's about to plummet? Miners are leading the way like they always do... Always last to the party, first to go home...

19 Jun

Catatan

Weird how reality runs on fractals, that history rhymes. Here's the silver miners playing out - which I think is correlated to market flushes.

Here's the movements:
After the top it took 6 weeks to reach a bottom - we're in week 4 (almost 20% loss).
One week up retracement (8% gain) - which'll coincide with the FOMC minutes (I bet they are hawkish to warrant FED doing an about face and cutting in July).
One week huge down candle (30% loss).
One (half) week up retracement (20% gain).
One week (and the previous half) another huge down candle (40% loss).
Last week goes up beginning the week and then down further (40% loss) and bottoms midweek before catapulting - which coincides with the July FOMC rate decision (30% gain).

I'm hoping IV is cheap enough to buy some puts and calls - not sure how much volatility will raise the price towards the bottom so it might be wise to buy some longer dated calls in and then scale in as time goes on and variances work themselves out.

I'm looking to buy in 2 weeks.

I anticipate the market to capsize after the FOMC minutes are released. Buy puts before that (Wednesday July 3rd before a holiday and the fireworks happen - in the market...), then if IV is low, buy calls on EVERYTHING CAUSE IT'S GONNA MOON!!

Newmont doubled within 2 months after rates were cut so I'm gonna buy calls on that miner which is the safest in the world. I anticipate price to be about $20 when this happens. There's a chance Newmont could go up 400% within 1 year.

If IV hasn't gone up too much, I'll rotate into the junior miner Endeavor Silver EXK which also went up 400% in 6 months and 800% in 1 year back in 2020. I will be loading calls on this one as well, hopefully getting in at $1.