QQQ Macro Stress

Gold ripping higher (+60% YoY)

• Investors are hedging inflation risk, currency debasement, or policy uncertainty
  
• Gold outperformance shows capital fleeing to “hard money” rather than growth assets
  
• CRBS/US10Y above 8% + US10Y trending down is a classic stagflation warning
  

Economy faces cost pressures (gold pricing in inflation fears)

• Bond market is saying “growth is slowing/policy will ease"
  
• Commodities are saying “inflation pressures are rising"
  
• That’s the exact recipe for stagflation - weak real growth, sticky/accelerating inflation
  

This is bearish-biased for QQQ unless CRBS/US10Y cools back below +8% because of multiple compression risk - growth narrative struggles if inflation is sticky while real growth is soft

• Valuations pressured by elevated yields
  
• No reflationary support from commodities
  
• Historically underperform in stagflation regimes
  

This setup (gold vertical, CRBS/US10Y sinking) = stagflation hedge regime

• QQQ continues higher if yields stabilize & capital rotation pauses (20%)
  
• Possible if Fed pivots or inflation fears calm while liquidity remains strong
  
• QQQ consolidates near highs (30%)
  
• Yields + inflation fears cap upside, but strong AI/earnings narrative prevents a deep selloff
  
• Most likely outcome (50%) is stagflation + sticky yields compress multiples (5%–10% correction risk)
  

CRBS/US10Y >8% while US10Y trends lower is one of the cleanest stagflation warning signals

• For QQQ it usually shifts probabilities heavily toward correction
  
• For gold/commodities it confirms continued strength