Markets again full of optimism: Novavax, Brexit, reopening

27 Mei 2020

The idea that the worst is behind completely fulfilled the minds of investors. Certainly there are some reasons for this: restrictions in Europe are being increasingly lifted up to the opening of tourist seasons soon. In addition, the news of the next vaccine trials (we are talking about the Novavax vaccine) reinforces the hope for the best, despite the fact the Novavax only begins trials, and the results will not be known before July (and the results will not necessarily be positive).

As a result any information like a new peak in the pandemic generated last week, and or fact at least six months will take the vaccine to appear on the shelves, is ignored by the markets as irrelevant. The same is true to the news about the tensions between the US and China. We still believe that investors should not look at the world exclusively in pink glasses. Last week clearly showed that the situation can change at any time and there are more than enough reasons for this.

As for the dynamics of financial markets yesterday, it was extremely typical for such an optimistic sentiments: stock markets were growing and with every new day the growth looks more and more uncontested. Though it is no less divorced from economic reality. Along with stock markets, commodity markets and oil were growing. At the same time, the dollar was under pressure. Emerging currencies are raising their heads on such background.

Another piece of news from yesterday are related to information that the EU is ready to compromise with Britain on one of the important issues - fishing in the UK coastline. Now European fishermen are actively fishing there, but Britain is inclined to make fishing in its waters exclusively own prerogative. So the EU is sending signals about willingness to compromise. We are rather skeptical about the idea of a compromise, since any of its options is the cost of the UK and it is not clear why they need it, except in conjunction with concessions on other issues from the EU. In general, so far the growth of the pound seems to us deprived of a fundamental basis and is based on rumors and hopes that, by definition, is quite unsteady ground for further growth.