Ultra Painful Trade for the coming 5-7 weeks
I have a very biased opinion of Sterling to what market has. Hence, the probability of me being wrong is very high. Because it's tough to admit but I have been consistently wrong this year on Sterling forecast and still I am not willing to budge.
Therefore, take this analysis with a pinch of salt, if you will.
But I, on the other hand, is going long with respect to all the factors combined.
1. UK GDP shrunk that caused pair to break its very crucial support of 1/2250 opening doors to 1.20 and below but pair managed to find some decent support at 1.20 ish.
2. Apart from GDP, rest components were still fine.. including Claimant count change, Retail Sales, CPI but all those came during bad times (Brexit) where fundamentals are just ignored and BOE has clearly stated that as long as Brexit remains the key issue any improvement in data will help them to readjust their further monetary outlook. However, they still expect a softer deal which is very optimistic of them, to be honest, by seeing BOJO at the helm.
3. Now, seasonally, we see, that Sterling get s a push from 4th of the week of August until mid to the third week o September where price rallies hard and fast. In the current price action scenario and levels, Sterling short is highest among all the currencies and pair has fallen by a good percentage since May. hence, short covering could give a huge push ahead of 31st October giving many other traders to create a short / Long position based on the future Brexit development.
4. We have Boris John and Merkel schedule to meet and also he is meeting Juncker and Barnier. This is the first time he is visiting the EU leaders after becoming the Prime minister of the UK. hence, expecting some sort of optimistic outlook/comments which will be enough for the sterling bears to cover their short + pair to rise to its nearest technical levels from where it has fallen hard.
Hence, I take the view that by October 31st, whatever result may it be, We gonna see Sterling around 1.25 levels from where either short/long will a good opportunity with respect to result and Risk: reward ratio.
Therefore, take this analysis with a pinch of salt, if you will.
But I, on the other hand, is going long with respect to all the factors combined.
1. UK GDP shrunk that caused pair to break its very crucial support of 1/2250 opening doors to 1.20 and below but pair managed to find some decent support at 1.20 ish.
2. Apart from GDP, rest components were still fine.. including Claimant count change, Retail Sales, CPI but all those came during bad times (Brexit) where fundamentals are just ignored and BOE has clearly stated that as long as Brexit remains the key issue any improvement in data will help them to readjust their further monetary outlook. However, they still expect a softer deal which is very optimistic of them, to be honest, by seeing BOJO at the helm.
3. Now, seasonally, we see, that Sterling get s a push from 4th of the week of August until mid to the third week o September where price rallies hard and fast. In the current price action scenario and levels, Sterling short is highest among all the currencies and pair has fallen by a good percentage since May. hence, short covering could give a huge push ahead of 31st October giving many other traders to create a short / Long position based on the future Brexit development.
4. We have Boris John and Merkel schedule to meet and also he is meeting Juncker and Barnier. This is the first time he is visiting the EU leaders after becoming the Prime minister of the UK. hence, expecting some sort of optimistic outlook/comments which will be enough for the sterling bears to cover their short + pair to rise to its nearest technical levels from where it has fallen hard.
Hence, I take the view that by October 31st, whatever result may it be, We gonna see Sterling around 1.25 levels from where either short/long will a good opportunity with respect to result and Risk: reward ratio.
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